If I interpret this right, a few key points stick out:
Genetic and antigenic analyses have shown that, compared to previous H5N1 isolates, 2004–2005 isolates share several amino acid changes that modulate antigenicity and perhaps other biological functions.
In other words, the things that antigens target are changing. This is not a good sign for the vaccines being made today. To put it terms a reporter might understand: The vaccines they are making today probably won't work.
NOTE: Some very clever research was mentioned earlier in the article that sounds like it may actually help. They are modifying some samples of H5N1 in ways that may be similar to the way the virus eventually gains the ability to spread easily among humans (if/when that happens). Vaccines made from these modified viruses have the potential to create better protection than the vaccine currently being manufactured. (Can't hurt to try...)
Furthermore, our molecular analysis of the HA from isolates collected in 2005 suggests that several amino acids located near the receptor-binding site are undergoing change, some of which may affect antigenicity or transmissibility. ...
In other words, the things that regulate the way the virus spreads are also changing. Since the way it spreads is changeable, it seems likely that someday it will change in a way that allows it to spread easily among humans.
The VN/30321/05 isolate demonstrated considerable antigenic drift from VN/04-like isolates, which have been selected as the candidate vaccine antigens.
In other words, the vaccine they are making is targeting something that is changing. The vaccine was not very effective anyway, and this means it is likely to be even less effective than originally thought.
In terms even my grandchildren understand: YIKES!
Further surveillance to determine the prevalence of such variants in poultry will be critical to determine if these variants compromise the efficacy of the candidate vaccine or increase the efficiency of transmission.
They're saying they don't know how widespread the changes they found actually are among chickens and other birds. NOTE: The changes are widespread enough to have been present in the birds they analyzed. That could be random bad luck, but probably not.
If these changes are widespread, they clearly indicate the current vaccine is unlikely to be very effective. And they clearly indicate this bug has the potential to make the changes necessary to spread easily among humans.
As a final note: H5N1 has become endemic in large parts of the world. In other words, the world has a whole lot of this virus floating around. The odds that something is going to happen seem pretty high.
BIG CAVEAT: The article did not discuss how changes making the virus more transmissible among humans would change the way it affects humans. So (looking for some good news here), perhaps the variant that finally breaks out will not be as bad as it seems right now. This is not actually that far fetched a thing to hope for, either.
Indeed.
I find it incredible so little of this is seen in the media when it is giving those in the know nightmares.
This is a CAT 5 forming out there just beyond the horizon and it appears there is no place to evacuate to. But, like a big storm, some individual preparation might help. However, if nobody can get off the beach individual efforts (other than strict self-quarantine) might be pretty futile.
It's a 50% killer right now. If it decreases in an order of magnitude, that still will kill at the 1918 spanish flu level, which had the world utterly panicked.