This reminds me of a post I wrote earlier today:
"The virus, which is endemic in Asia, can recombine with another influenza virus capable of infecting humans in swine or other farm mammals. It COULD happen in humans, or in any number of other animals which can pass viruses to humans....At this particular time, waterfowl have been shown to be able to harbor the H5N1 virus without becoming sick. Meaning they'll stay alive to infect pigs, and since both species live in close proximity to humans in China--in some cases share the same house--the mutation of H5N1 into a form easily passed between humans is inevitable."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1487811/posts?page=14#14
This is the way it happens every single year, it has gone on for decades, it is the basis for each year's flu vaccine.
Sooner or later, the H5N1 virus is going to make the jump to easy human-to-human transmissibility as many other viruses have before it. There is SO MUCH H5N1 out there, infecting hundreds of millions of birds, that I think it will be sooner, rather than later.
Like the article said, it happened with cats (tigers)--and when they ate the infected chickens, and got the virus, the virus changed enough THAT QUICKLY that the tigers were able to pass the virus to each other. And all the tigers who got the virus, died. All of them.
People can scoff and laugh and say they have better things to worry about, can deride our concern and suggest we are wrapped a little too tight all they want. They can point to SARS and say, see? It never killed one person in the US. We are so advanced medically that we are safe from H5N1.
Influenza is different--unlike SARS it can be passed on by people who are NOT showing symptoms. There is no vaccine and there won't be one in time--it has to jump to human transmission before an effective vaccine can be made, and once it does, it will very rapidly go around the world. While the vaccine is being made, many will sicken and some will die. Then--how will the vaccine be distributed? Who will get the first doses? Who is essential enough, or important enough?
Mother Abigail, thank you for posting this and pinging us to this article. H5N1 is what it is, and will do what it will do.
Judith,
This is the trip wire that will let you know if the bug gets out of the box.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/case-count/avflucount.html
MA