Spiff, Excuse me for asking, but how much experience do you have in manned spaceflight or aerospace? Me I was in for 15 years - for calibration. I have seen personally what gold plated requirements do to program cost and schedule. Yeah, its early days for Rutan. He also has a proven track record of getting a lot done for minimal money. We need much more like that and a lot less like what I saw when I worked on NASA and DOD spaceflight/satellite programs.
Your fifteen years of experience should have told you what I told you. Rutan got a fancy plane to kiss the technical boundary of space for a moment - twice. Yes, we need much more of the Rutan-type effort and thinking, but until he achieves orbit he's got as much chance as anyone else in making it to Mars. We're talking about orders of magnitude more complex and difficult than what he's done so far. Could he do it? It is within the realm of possibility. Do I think he will do it. No. Check back with me in 20 years and we'll settle up.
27 years and counting for me so far. Design and flight operations.
I have seen personally what gold plated requirements do to program cost and schedule. Yeah, its early days for Rutan. He also has a proven track record of getting a lot done for minimal money. We need much more like that and a lot less like what I saw when I worked on NASA and DOD spaceflight/satellite programs.
Rutan was able to use data from both the Air Force and NASA that cost billions of dollars and many years to produce.