so is 110 mph the max this storm can get if the GOM is cooler than for Katrina?
Not at all. This storm will be going over waters that Katrina never touched and the SST's are similar to what Katrina had to feed from. Sheer is minimal and everything is in place for further strengthening. Also, a burst of strength may come soon before landfall due to the fact that the temps closer to TX are even warmer. ERC timing will, as always with strong storms, be a main factor in intensity towards landfall.
No, she can top 110mph. I was using that as an idea for the Keys area. The greatest heat potential in the Atlantic basin is right around the keys, but the entire GOM can still sustain a Cat 3+.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averages/05sep/gm_05sep20_0222_mult.png
There is a small swath of 'cooler' water to the west of Cuba, but not cool enough to really do too much. Once the storm is in the central GOM... it has plenty of heat to work with. Water is warm all the way to the TX coast. The only thing that would hurt the storm in that regard would be if she slowed down enough to bring cooler water to the surface.
