Posted on 09/18/2005 1:07:51 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
SACRAMENTO — With Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's confirmation he's running for re-election, his foes hope to persuade the public his bid for new term hangs on the out come of his Nov. 8 special election to revamp government.
It doesn't, according to analysts.
Political experts said Schwarzenegger can survive a special-election defeat and go on to win re-election in November 2006.
"Schwarzenegger has huge problems," said Jack Pitney, a government professor at Claremont McKenna College. "But other governors have climbed out of the poll pits to win re-election." Oakland's own Jerry Brown, a Democrat, and former GOP Gov. Pete Wilson both looked very vulnerable a year out from their successful re-elections.
In announcing his re-election bid Friday, Schwarzenegger said he's in office for the long haul.
"I'm going to follow through" and "finish the job," he said, during an appearance in San Diego, on the eve of this weekend's state GOP convention in Orange County.
"Schwarzenegger, like Brown and Wilson, could certainly make a comeback and be re-elected," said Tim Hodson, executive director of the Center for California Studies at California State University, Sacramento.
Analysts point to multiple factors — the special election, the quality of opposition in the Democratic primary, the 2006-07 budget, Schwarzenegger's efforts to recapture some of his old support, the outcome of raising money and his chances of putting the other side on the defensive.
"The special election may be an albatross today, but it won't necessarily be one in 2006," Hodson said. "If even one of his initiatives passes in November, the governor could declare victory."
"If none passes, he could do a public mea culpa and promise a new approach as Bill Clinton did in Arkansas when he won back the governor's office after being defeated for re-election," Hodson said.
"In either case, the special election will be vague memory by the November 2006 general election," he said.
Schwarzenegger will not face serious opposition in the 2006 primary, while the candidates with "relatively low public profiles" — Controller Steve Westly and Treasurer Phil Angelides — will battle for the Democratic nomination.
"They have the opportunity to build appealing images, but there is also a real chance that they will tear each other down, or that the Republicans will do it for them," Pitney said. "In trial heats, Angelides and Westly are not running far ahead of Schwarzenegger."
Already, they are sniping at each other.
Westly's camp called Angelides a "slimy developer," which caused the angry treasurer to lash back. Westly also made his personal income tax returns for the past 10 years available and challenged Angelides to do the same. Schwarzenegger, who has recently played to his conservative supporters, also needs "to recapture some of his old support," said Pitney.
"In the months ahead, he needs to pick his fights more carefully and show that he can still be a bipartisan problem-solver on at least some issues," Pitney said.
When it comes time in January to unveil his proposed 2006-07 budget proposal, Hodson said, Schwarzenegger "is in a good position to try to negotiate budget deals that would enable him to kiss and make up, or at least ameliorate his feuds, with various groups, especially the California Teachers Association."
Raising money is as important a factor as any, analysts said.
"That's why an early announcement makes sense," Pitney said. "Nobody wants to give to a campaign that may never start."
The governor's declaration came six months before the deadline.
Schwarzenegger also "needs to put the other side on the defensive," said Pitney. 'The governor has made far-reaching proposals on fiscal reform. He might challenge his critics to come up with specific alternatives."
Hodson said the governor's "basic strategy should be the same as the strategy that elected Pete Wilson and (former GOP Gov.) George Deukmejian. Schwarzenegger should persuade the great number of moderate voters that he offers a better and more reasonable choice than the Democratic nominee."
"This cannot happen if he plays solely to the conservative wing of the Republican Party," he said.
One analyst, looking at the coming special election, compared Schwarzenegger to former boxing champion Muhammed Ali.
"The performance in the ring was important but the show before and after the main event (the recall and last election) was where we got to see how the guy thinks," said David McCuan, a political professor at California State University, Sonoma.
"It was where the action was — in the buildup to the fight and the spin afterwards." McCuan said.
The author hasn't a clue.
Arnold's asked for cooperation from the legislature in reforming Calif's problems.
Legislature (w/ urging of union pals) have basically said F.Y. to Arnold
Arnold's only hope (short of state of emergency in CA.) is for passage of his initiatives.
If they don't pass, why would Arnold "hang 'round" ?
He's not stupid - nor a masochist.
AMEN. I wish some of our other CA FR's would realize this.
Adding to his own agenda, Arnold endorsed Prop 75 "Paycheck Protection" today.
DITTOS to that, the Union thugs have birdogged Arnold all year, I'd sure like to see them eat some SH*T.
"Schwarzenegger, like Brown and Wilson, could certainly make a comeback and be re-elected,"He's been "solely" playing to the conservative wing? I always love these lefties who use their "non-partisan" titles to promote moderation to help the Republicans "move left."[Schwarzenegger ]"is in a good position to try to negotiate budget deals that would enable him to kiss and make up, or at least ameliorate his feuds, with various groups, especially the California Teachers Association."
"Schwarzenegger should persuade the great number of moderate voters that he offers a better and more reasonable choice than the Democratic nominee." ... "This cannot happen if he plays solely to the conservative wing of the Republican Party"
1988: "Tim Hodson, chief consultant to the Senate elections committee and one of the Democrats' top reapportionment strategists " (San Jose Mercury News, August 20, 1988)1993: "Tim Hodson, chief consultant with the California State Senate Elections and Reapportionment Committee." (Orange County Register, June 29, 1993)
Can you say "Rat mouthpiece"?
Naw, this is just a few more of the same brand of nails that the Governator has hammered into his own coffin.
Tim Hodson's advice: screw your base a couple more times and enough Rats will vote for you to put you over the top. Oh yeah, and you need to apologize to those same Rast as well.
Pardon me, I've got a bridge to sell.
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