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Actually it's not certain but it's very likely.

And it is in fact a defeat for the CDU/CSU union, compared to what was expected. I mean, what would you call it if the union was consistently above 40% in the polls for months and then election day comes around and they are around 35.5%?

The likely result will be Merkel as the ineffectual figurehead of a "grand coalition" betwen the conservative union and Schroeder's SPD party. Parties and coalitions are what matters in German politics- not the Chancellor as an individual. In every move she makes, Merkel will have to represent the interests of Schroeder's SPD as well as her own conservatives. That means she'll have to toe the anti-American foreign policy far more than she would otherwise.

I agree this result is better than an outright Schroeder win, but one could have expected much better based on the polls and the 11% unemployment in Germany.

I doubt anything radical will happen. No one has a mandate to reform the economy. In Germany, the sclerotized welfare state will shuffle along, taking the country down with it like a deadweight.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)

I agree this result is better than an outright Schroeder win, but one could have expected much better based on the polls and the 11% unemployment in Germany.

I think that it really about unemployment.

1. The unemployment is uneven, that is, some areas have large unemployment (north in Bremerhaven = 25%, I was told, as of this past June)) or in parts of former east Germany (up to 20%) so the 11% figure is somewhat uninformative, since other areas must have close 2% to make up the difference.

2. Also, the unemployment benefits must be rethought. Those who can work, don't often get off the dole. Spouses used to get full wages when they would become unemployed. I assume this is changing as we speak.

I think that all Germans know that it will take time, patience and many, many Euros to make up for the reunification process, the rebuilding of former east Germany (effects of 50 years of communism, that is. There are STILL many, many empty gulag-type buildings and hodge-podge urban planning. Example: Leipzig seems to be 80% digging, building, tearing down and unplanned. Dresden is gorgeous. What a difference in the two cities.) and the re-structuring of "benefits."
They just can afford to do what they did before reunification.