With all respect, I like your points but I just dont see it the way you do...
I think demand creates black markets. And I think nearly everyone will want to save the 22% (even if some are afriad to) and hence create the demand.
I think that government will be powerless to stop it as they are with nearly every black market in our nations history.
I think that people will want to go the the black market to buy their goods forcing people who would other want to be law abiding to either close their shops or become "criminals" themselves.
I think that criminals will then run the nearly the entire retail portion of our economy, their tenticals will reach into the supply part of the economy by criminal tactics.
Some think that this one Fair Tax Law will be easier to enforce, I think the one Fair Tax Law Enforcement Department will be easier to bribe. And they will be bribed by the criminals running the retail portion of our economy, wich are there because they are providing good and services that people demand.
In summary...
Saving 22% is a HUGE temptation...
People will want to do that...
If the people want it, then the goverment will be powerless to stop it.
I think our tax law is cumbersome and has lots of problems. Im not convinced that Fair Tax is the answer and I remain skeptical... Hoping someone will show me where I am wrong...
Your points are more of an admission that our government is to big. The NRST rate is simply a function of the government size and scope. If what you predict does come to fruition, then the government would not be able to operate and may be forced to become efficient, smaller and more in scope with the original intent of the fed government.
I think demand creates black markets. And I think nearly everyone will want to save the 22% (even if some are afriad to) and hence create the demand.
And just who is going to sell to them 22% lower for the same profit that would be obtained by remaining legal and free of risk?
I think that government will be powerless to stop it as they are with nearly every black market in our nations history.
No tax system is going to stop illegal and undground trade. That is not the issue as the current system fosters a very active underground as it is with much lower risks than are associated with retail trade at the levels you imagine.
Some think that this one Fair Tax Law will be easier to enforce, I think the one Fair Tax Law Enforcement Department will be easier to bribe. And they will be bribed by the criminals running the retail portion of our economy, wich are there because they are providing good and services that people demand.
Bribery just opens the door to potential exposure, not to mention the fact that thousands of customers, anyone of whom can turn states evidence with absolutely no risk to themselves. Under the current federal income/payroll tax system, just not filing suffices quite well and no one to bribe in evading the tax with risks 10 times lower of getting caught as a non-filer hiding out among 120million tax payers today.
In short your black marketeer is taking high risks for much less than 22% potential profitability over legal operation. Remember the risk must be compensated for for a seller to make themselves available, not to mention that such operators would not qualify for taxfree purchasing that a legitimate business operates under. To qualify for taxfree purchasing status puts the blackmarketeer open to sales audit and exposure.
The profit from a black market operation in general simply would not be any greater than such is today under the income/payroll tax system.
In summary...
Saving 22% is a HUGE temptation...
People will want to do that...
If the people want it, then the goverment will be powerless to stop it.
Only problem is there is no "22%" to be realized. To gain share from legitmate businesses and make a profit compensating for risks taken as well as operating costs to remain hidden and out of government oversight eats any 22% potential in no time at all.
I just don't see it. Americans want the newest, shiniest, coolest gadgets they can get. They also want a huge selection. They also want convenience. Sure a black market will exist, it does now, but what if you need a new driver for your golf bag while you're on vacation in Hilton Head? What if your window AC unit goes out in August? What if you need a new blender right now because you're having a party tonight? What if you forgot to do all your Christmas shopping until the last minute? ON and ON.
Do you really think a black market can accomodate American tastes and demands. Maybe a little but not a lot.