Delta. They've been unlucky. They sealed in some union contracts about 3 weeks before 9/11 and were powerless to get out of them when air travel collapsed for months thereafter. Other airlines were much closer to contract expiration and did not have to endure cash drain as long.
But that's all past tense. That all just served to erase Delta's cash reserve. The real problem for Delta is what it has been for all the legacy carriers -- the business model won't work at $70/barrel with Low Cost Carriers present domestically.
It really all does come down to that. You can't book Southwest to London, England. You can't fund an entire airline on only flights to London, England. The legacy hub and spoke carriers used domestic spokes to bring passengers to their international hubs. If the spokes are choked by LCC's, they can't raise prices to deal with fuel price explosion.
What will happen for Delta is bankruptcy will let them redo interest payments and buy them time for Congress to either let them delay pension funding kill it altogether like United did. Both those items will unload a lot of costs from Delta and give them time for the cost cuts they've already instituted in their pay structure to take effect.
The way I see it-kill those CEO golden parachutes, and make their salary contigent on performance. As a stockholder I would be pissed if the company I had invested in was going south, and their CEO throws in the towel while leaving with millions. Read USAirways. That carrier takes a lot of heat on this board, but as one of their partners I am saying with a straight face that they are one of the better carriers out there. Customer service, ontime performance, etc. They hold us (express partner)to very high standards. It bothers me to know that AA will survive and USAir is in so much trouble..
What happens ( to the ticket buyer ) if you have a reservation for a future flight and they go Chapter 11 before that date ?
Very nice take, Owen. You are a bright guy.