Tropical Storm Ophelia Live Thread

NOAA - NHC ^ | 6 September 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Ophelia is located off the Florida Atlantic coast, currently forecasted to develop slowly into a hurricane. The extended NHC forecast indicates a slow, circular path just off the Florida coast. Tropical storm warnings and watches are issued for portions of the Florida Atlantic coast.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphic
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
News4Jax.com
Hurricane City
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:

Tropical Storm Ophelia
Tropical Depression 16

[NautiNurse]

Please keep graphics <50KB. Do not post illustrations of Hamlet's Ophelia or live video cams.

Ophelia is also a famous painting by John Everett Millais, painted in 1852. It depicts the character from Shakespeare's play "Hamlet" singing while floating in a river just before her suicidal death by drowning.

Ophelia was modelled by artist Elizabeth Siddall, who famously nearly died from a fever caught while modelling in a cold bath for the painting. Millais was so intent on his work that he had forgotten to replace the candles that were keeping the water warm.

The painting is famous for its depiction of the detailed flora of the river and the riverbank.

Ophelia's pose, opening her arms and gazing upwards, resembles traditional portrayals of saints or martyrs, but has also been interpreted as erotic.

"Ophelia" is held at the Tate Art Museum in London. (thanks MinuteGal for the art history lesson).

[NautiNurse]

Live thread up...lots of rain...extended forecast predicts hurricane off the FL Atlantic coast.

[Guenevere]

As I said on another thread, this is my coast it's sitting off of, and coming parallel with my area...(Melbourne, give or take)....

Now they say it might become a hurricane....oh joy!

[ovrtaxt]

In before the flood!

(just kidding)

[NautiNurse]

Have you rec'd much rain to date?

[Howlin]

Keep her down there!

[Knitting A Conundrum]

I do not believe I have ever seen so many named storms in one year...

It was odd the year Juan happened, to get to the Js...but now the O's?

[OXENinFLA]

Boy she's just sitting of the coast......

[NonValueAdded]

From the 8 AM Intermediate advisory

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 28.5 north...longitude 79.2 west or about 80 miles east of Cape Canaveral Florida.

Ophelia is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph. This general motion...with a gradual decrease in forward speed...is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles mainly to the north and east of the center.

At 5 AM it was 105 miles East of the Cape so that is either a relocation of the center or there is a much larger eastward motion than is being reported (or its a typo!). In any event, the winds are much closer now than before. JAX beware!

[NautiNurse]

Question for you - what is going on with the buoy data (or lack of it)?

[Hatteras]

I MUST go down to the seas again, to the lonely sea and the sky,
And all I ask is a tall ship and a star to steer her by,
And the wheel's kick and the wind's song and the white sail's shaking,
And a gray mist on the sea's face, and a gray dawn breaking.

I must go down to the seas again, for the call of the running tide
Is a wild call and a clear call that may not be denied;
And all I ask is a windy day with the white clouds flying,
And the flung spray and the blown spume, and the sea-gulls crying.

I must go down to the seas again, to the vagrant gypsy life,
To the gull's way and the whale's way, where the wind's like a whetted knife;
And all I ask is a merry yarn from a laughing fellow-rover,
And quiet sleep and a sweet dream when the long trick's over.

Sea-Fever
John Masefield

[NonValueAdded]

make that westward motion

[OXENinFLA]

There was an OPAL in 1995.

[Desdemona]

I do not believe I have ever seen so many named storms in one year...

Remember Rosilyn of 1995? I think the named storms got to at least T that year.

[OXENinFLA]

Hurricane Opal 27 September - 5 October 1995

[NautiNurse]

With this storm predicted to hover off the coast before developing into a hurricane Saturday...flooding is a very real concern.

[IamConservative]

Didn't Florence do a circle last year like this one appears to be doing?

[don-o]

That is an interesting 5 day track. She's supposed to meander around, them turn back east and out to sea.

In upper East Tennessee the weather is like mid October - cloudless, brilliant skies. Low humidities. Lows in the 50's (40's in the mountains.)

[OXENinFLA]

That would be Hurricane Roxanne
7 - 21 October 1995, not Rosilyn.

But yes they did make it into the "T"'s in 1995.

1995
Hurricane Allison
Tropical Storm Barry
Tropical Storm Chantal
Tropical Storm Dean
Hurricane Erin
Tropical Depression Six
Hurricane Felix
Tropical Storm Gabrielle
Hurricane Humberto
Hurricane Iris
Tropical Storm Jerry
Tropical Storm Karen
Hurricane Luis
Tropical Depression Fourteen
Hurricane Marilyn
Hurricane Noel
Hurricane Opal
Tropical Storm Pablo
Hurricane Roxanne
Tropical Storm Sebastien
Hurricane Tanya

[Knitting A Conundrum]

You're right. 95 was a very very active year:

Winds in knots, pressure in millibars, category is based on Saffir-Simpson scale.

# Name Dates Wind Pres Cat
1 Hurricane ALLISON 03-06 JUN 65 987 1
2 Tropical Storm BARRY 06-09 JUL 50 995 -
3 Tropical Storm CHANTAL 13-20 JUL 60 992 -
4 Tropical Storm DEAN 28-31 JUL 40 999 -
5 Hurricane ERIN 31 JUL-03 AUG 75 975 1
6 Tropical Depression #6 05-07 AUG 30 1001 -
7 Hurricane FELIX 08-17 AUG 115 950 4
8 Tropical Storm GABRIELLE 09-12 AUG 60 988 -
9 Hurricane HUMBERTO 22 AUG-01 SEP 90 970 2
10 Hurricane IRIS 22 AUG-04 SEP 95 965 2
11 Tropical Storm JERRY 22-25 AUG 35 1003 -
12 Tropical Storm KAREN 26 AUG-03 SEP 45 1000 -
13 Hurricane LUIS 28 AUG-11 SEP 120 936 4
14 Tropical Depression #14 11-13 SEP 30 1009 -
15 Hurricane MARILYN 12-22 SEP 100 949 3
16 Hurricane NOEL 27 SEP-07 OCT 65 987 1
17 Hurricane OPAL 27 SEP-05 OCT 130 916 4
18 Tropical Storm PABLO 05-07 OCT 50 998 -
19 Hurricane ROXANNE 07-20 OCT 100 958 3
20 Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN 20-24 OCT 35 1004 -
21 Hurricane TANYA 27 OCT-02 NOV 75 974 1