Posted on 09/04/2005 5:46:28 AM PDT by cloud8
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's party is likely to be returned to power with an increased majority in next weekend's election.
His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to win over 250 seats in the 480-member House of Representatives in the September 11 vote, according to the poll of 118,616 voters carried out by the Asahi Shimbun for four days to Saturday.
The Asahi telephone poll forecast the LDP would garner between 234 and 276 seats -- with the median figure standing at 255.
The figure would mark a significant increase on the party's 212 seats going into the election and would be higher than the 237 it won at the last election.
The Asahi's prediction means the upcoming vote could be the first general election since 1990 in which the LDP would be able to govern alone without needing to rely on a coalition partner, currently the New Komeito party.
A confident-looking Koizumi told the public network NHK on Sunday that voter reactions were "becoming similar" to what was seen in the July 2001 election. He scored an easy victory in that election held three months after taking office with support rates of more than 80 percent.
"Many people gather and listen to my speeches under a scorching sun. Their reactions after I speak are also so great," he said, adding he felt "people's growing support" for his signature reform of privatizing the post office.
In the last general election in November 2003 the LDP won only 237 seats outright but the number later rose when independent and coalition party members joined the party after the election.
However, it's showing fell to 212 when LDP rebels who voted against Koizumi's signature reform plan of breaking up the post office were kicked out of the party, triggering the early election.
According to the mass-circulation Asahi's poll, the main opposition Democratic Party is expected to win fewer than its pre-election 177 seats.
Democratic Party leader Katsuya Okada admitted he "took the media predictions severely."
"But the real game will start in the coming week," Okada told the same NHK program.
"Japan would collapse if things carry on like this ... We are the only force who can carry out reforms," he said, adding his party would seek support especially from younger age groups.
Besides the Asahi survey, opinion polls by other major newspapers, including the Yomiuri Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun, also indicated that the LDP would likely gain a majority.
But all the dailies cautioned that the situation may change in the week ahead, given that about 30 percent of voters remain undecided.
It would be nice to see a privatization of the Japanese postal savings and re-defining of Article 9 of their Constitution.
Japan * ping * (kono risuto ni hairitai ka detai wo shirasete kudasai : let me know if you want on or off this list)
> It would be nice to see a privatization of the Japanese postal savings...
It this a big first step, or a small one in the reform of the entire banking system?
> and re-defining of Article 9 of their Constitution.
The No-War Clause. Redefined how far? to spell out the role of Japan's already existing Self Defence and Blue Helmet forces, or the role of a larger, more aggressive military force? That's going to be a tough one.
"It would be nice to see a privatization of the Japanese postal savings"
A friend of mine who is retired from a major bank here told me that powerful forces have been using postal savings as their personal piggie bank, and making illegal payoffs out of it. He didn't seem too optimistic that Elvis will be able to go head to head with them and win.
"That's going to be a tough one."
They'll just wait till it rolls around.
Please forgive my curiousity, but what reforms you would like to see in Japan's banking system?
That wouldn't suprise me at all.
My understanding is that there were a lot of bad loans, that the Japanese government was trying to prevent the collapse of the banking system by bailing the banks out, and the whole mess was stalling the recovery of Japan, Inc.
Some info here.
Might this put Japan at increased risk for an Al Quaeda attack in the manner of that preceding the Spanish elections? A good showing by Koizumi might be interpreted as an affirmation of his pro-US Iraq policy (although it probably would not be reported that way by the US press - however a bad showing by Koizumi would almost certainly be reported in the US as a defeat for President Bush and the US Iraq coalition).
PM Koizumi has been close to America and from Asia which previous PMs of Japan were more concerned about China. This was not good for America, concerning the underground Cold War II against China. The Japanese liberal media continued to bash the PM that Japan should be more close to China and Asia rather than US which they claim to be a puppet of US. The Japanese liberal media has continued to attempt to brainwash its citizens to create pro-China motivations. Recent anti-Japan protests in China has decreased the bond of the two, but the liberal media continues to attempt decreasing the damage while bashing America. There has to be something to be done with this by claiming China's attempt to politically colonize Japan using the liberal media as their propaganda.
I hope not. But it might, and I would welcome Japan to the Crusade. In a country of almost 127.5M, Japan's Mohammedans, who number about 100,000, more than 90 percent are not Japanese. Source, Paki Daily Times So the bad guys would be easily identifiable.
The LDP has been central-right party, but it also contains pro-China factions. The cuurent election will probably strenghten the pro-American factions and weaken the central and pro-China factions. This is very good news for America if PM could get rid of the pro-China factions and members which opposed the postal reform. However, there are going to be some centrists that are going to be wiped out as well. The major opponent is the Japanese Democratic Party. This party is similar to the American Democratic Party. LDP is named as liberal, but is more conservative than any other parties. The remainings are Communist Party, Socialist Democratic Party, and the Koumei Party. The Koumei Party is relatively Pro-China, and that is one problem for the LDP. All except LDP is leftist, and maybe Democratic would be central-left compared to the other leftist party. Concerning the future threats of the Socialist Democratic Party and the Communist Party, it may be rather a gain for these two to be wiped out which once has been a major opponent of LDP. The parliament is moving toward bipolar, containing LDP and Democratic Party while others continue a trend to shrink. If the Koumei Party follows the trend, the system might be pretty similar to the style of US with Republican and Democratic Party, excluding the fact that the Japanese head will be the Prime Minister and not a President.
Some info here.
Hmmm. Well, I think that the referenced Paul Krugman article is just a little out of date: "I welcome the substantial assistance in Japan's legislation to repair its troubled banking system," declared President Clinton this weekend.
In particular, Mr. Krugman in this old article seems quite worried about non-performing loans (NPLs) in Japan; however, that NPL situation has receded and the NPLs are no longer a large problem for the Japanese banking system as a whole.
For what it is worth, there are much more current articles available at the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp) and even here on Free Republic.
From a quick search of Free Republic on "Japan":
Japan in lasting economic recovery, BOJ’s Muto says (September 3, 2005)
Japan's International Investment Position at Year-End 2004 (August 29, 2005)
Japan seeing double-barrelled recovery (August 24, 2005)
Japan 's bond sale may cost most since March as economy expands (August 23, 2005)
Japan's GDP increases by 1.1 percent (August 15, 2005)
Why the Sun is Still Rising (and Japan is Poised to Beat us Economically) (August 9, 2005)
Japan's corporate debt falls below 100 trillion yen for first time in decade (July 25, 2005)
Japan's Unemployment Rate Fell to 6-Year Low in April (June 2, 2005)
Japan's Consumers Show Signs of Life (GDP Grew at 5.3% Rate For January-March Period...) (May 18, 2005)
Specifically on the NPL situation, here is a selection of articles and whatnot from the Bank of Japan, though really the NPL situation has been considered fixed for a while:
Financial System Report: An Assessment of Financial System Stability August, 2005 document --- PDF is here:
After more than a decade of struggle, Japan's financial system has almost overcome the nonperforming-loan (NPL) problem, and has entered a new phase of development. The full removal of the blanket guarantee of deposits on April 1, 2005 was a symbolic event of this phase shift.In view of the changing circumstances, the Bank of Japan published, on March 22, 2005,* "The Bank of Japan's Measures regarding the Financial System after the Full Removal of Blanket Guarantee of Deposits." In this statement, the Bank announced that its basic stance in financial system policy would shift from crisis management to supporting private-sector initiatives toward providing more efficient and advanced financial services via fair competition, while maintaining financial system stability. In this regard, the Bank underwent organizational reforms to adapt to this shift: the establishment of the Financial Systems and Bank Examination Department, by integrating the Financial Systems Department and the Bank Examination and Surveillance Department; and the establishment of the Center for Advanced Financial Technology in the new department.
New Trends in Financial Services: Creation of Innovative Retail Services August 4, 2005, from a speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan:
Retail financial services have just entered a new stage of development in Japan. This is evident, for example, in the fact that an increasing number of banks are allocating substantial management resources to various areas of retail financial services. Behind this movement is a business strategy among banks to strengthen their profitability, now that the nonperforming-loan (NPL) problem has been nearly overcome. Enhancement of retail financial services, however, is not a trend seen only in Japan, but it has been a common feature in financial industries worldwide since the 1990s.
On-Site Examination Policy for Fiscal 2005 (April 4, 2005; look at page 2 of the PDF file)
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2005) (April 28, 2005; broad summary of Japanese banking situation)
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2004) (October 29, 2004)
So then, to rephrase what I had asked in no. 3, the postal savings reform is or is not part of a larger problem?
Thanks for all the info. Lots of useful sources on your home page too. And you're a Penguin :)
--Bill, posting from a Knoppix/Debian machine
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