The hurricane chart shown in this thread shows a strike zone about 400 miles wide. And at the time, the storm was what, cat 2 or cat 3?
If we follow what the Monday morning quarterbacks are calling for, how many times would NO have been previously evacuated? Once a year, since forever?
The storm, at that time, was a Cat 5, only dropping to a Cat 4 right before going inland.
Yeah, but the conditions were perfect for significant intensification (90 degree water temperature), and ALL of the computer models were in total agreement on the track. If it was you and your family on the line, would you prefer a few unnecessary trips out of the area to drowning in a flood (or worse)? Once a year? No way.
You do have a point there. And I don't think these people would have left anyway. They didn't want to leave their stuff.
you bring up a good point...hurricane fatigue would LONG have taught NO residents to simply ignore the buses that come to take them away a couple of times a year or risk their homes being robbed, etc. On the other hand, by saturday night I think the evacuation should have been ordered, regardless of who heeded it. Waiting until less than 24 hours before landfall, on a sunday, is pathetic.
I think the bigger failure was the failure to declare martial law or the napoleonic equivalent and send the LNG into new orleans immediately on monday post-storm. No excuse for that at all. The LA governor is going to fall over this.