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To: Mr Ramsbotham
"Every time the price of some commodity goes up... ...insisting that it's the result of greedy people gouging prices"

It's always easier to attribute events we don't understand to behavior we do. Profit margins at the pump are so low, we can't blame station owners. Oil companies aren't withholding the commodity so we can't blame them. Exporting countries with reserves are experiencing particularly high instability... probably the main culprit. Our administration has root caused the problem and is introducing long term stability in the form of democracy to regions with the most reserves. We're in for a bumpy ride but we all need to agree on the goal. A stable and democratic Middle East allied to American values.

To your point… People become jack asses when they're willing to make up answers to their own questions or assume someone else has responsibility and the answers. In either case, a jack ass is content with his or her misery and decides not to seek answers or solutions. Greed is a problem, but certainly not the whole problem.

13 posted on 09/03/2005 12:53:40 AM PDT by humint (Define the future... but only if you're prepared for war with the soldiers of the past and present!)
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To: humint
There's no mystery at all about the energy price spike, or at least no mystery to any objective and reasonably informed observer. These mkts are indeed very close, closer than they've ever been in fact, to a worldwide supply imbalance.

It's not here yet, not by any measure, and certainly not in the US, where stocks on hand are in at least as good shape as they've been since 2001-2002. However, one doesn't buy A barrel of crude at the mkt price; one buys the next barrel of crude, the famed ''marginal'' barrel.

The price of this famous barrel is being gunned not by speculation, not by governments, but by plain old-fashioned fear of what ''might'' occur. Not w/o reason, mind you. Civil war in Nigeria? Might well occur next week. Shipping embargo by the socialist moron Chavez? Distinct possibility (won't work out the way he wants it to, but he's too stupid to understand why not). Iran announces possession of a ''dirty'' bomb or two (they're some little time away from building a real nuke)? Absolutely likely, the more so as instability increases in the ''Islamic Republic''.

Easy to name a couple of dozen such possibilities, and it's terribly easy to spot what the mkt participants in energy do in response to the possibilities. True pros in energy aren't there to gamble (unlike, say, most major airlines), they're there to run their respective businesses and make a buck. In plain English, they hedge out their risk when and where possible.

If one HAS TO have the goods in hand or otherwise be able to purchase them, and there is ANY sort of risk that one might not be able to do so at some unnamed but nearby future date, the only sensible course is to purchase in front of usage, WELL in front.

And that is what is occurring now. Additionally, the oil majors are NOT hedging (that's a sell hedge, btw) to the degree they've done historically. Just check the COT reports about NYMEX energy mkts that come out every Friday, and compare them to prior years' reports.

''Greed'', as you put it, is a small part of the current mix, but Big Daddy is named ''fear''.

16 posted on 09/03/2005 1:59:15 AM PDT by SAJ
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