The point I was trying to make is that once we are sure we are passed the tipping point of oil production as we know it today, the economic justification to tap other sources will occur.
I wouldn't get my panties in a bunch over it, ANWR production estimates would near completely replace current Saudi and Iraq supplies to the US for a period of 10 years on the mean. Now they say 7 years to tap, but if it got into a dire situation, believe me, it would be up and running far faster than 7 years.
There will likely be pain whever we do start running out of oil, but we haven't depleated the reserves we KNOW about yet.... Not to mention, there are existing oil rigs in the continental united states already hooked up and could be turned on quickly.. but its currently cheaper and more efficient to just buy it from overseas.
If the price gets permanently to a high $$ per bbl, those rigs will start pumping again post haste.
We aren't there yet, all that is going on is a bubble in oil futures, its going to pop, and its going to be ugly when it does, and the folks who irrationally drove it up, will likely drive off in their sportscars leaving grandma and grandpa holding the bag, just like the last investment bubble.
Dear HamiltonJay,
"I wouldn't get my panties in a bunch over it, ANWR production estimates would near completely replace current Saudi and Iraq supplies to the US for a period of 10 years on the mean. Now they say 7 years to tap, but if it got into a dire situation, believe me, it would be up and running far faster than 7 years."
Heck, maybe even only five years.
So, we have only five years of crisis. LOL.
However, ANWR ain't gonna do it. The problem is that it IS a world market, and the Saudis and Iraqis provide oil to more than just the US. Their decline (and that of other exporting countries that may be near "peak oil") will be a whole lot more than ANWR is going to provide.
In the meanwhile, if it takes another 30 - 50 years to get to "peak oil" in these places, then we're all treated to another 1/3 to 1/2 century of the instability of our foreign (and to some degree, domestic) policy, to having to manage crises with these nations (because we will have no choice - they will be too important to just ignore), and having to spend our blood and treasure to preserve order in these regions.
Let's face it, Saddam without oil over the last quarter century, next door to an oiless-Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, would have been little more than the equivalent of one of those warlords in Somalia. He'd have had a couple of jeeps and some AK-47s with which to invade Kuwait, although lacking the motivation of her oilfields.
"Not to mention, there are existing oil rigs in the continental united states already hooked up and could be turned on quickly.. but its currently cheaper and more efficient to just buy it from overseas."
Even at $50, $60, $70 per barrel? Heck, if they can be turned on that quickly, oil's been over $40 per barrel for over a year - why not turn 'em all on and make some dough?
I'm not sure they'd generate a million or two or three barrels per day.
No, what I see is that producers are straining to meet demand. Worldwide. And in our country, where there's plenty of oil to be produced if the price holds steady at perhaps $35 - $40 per barrel, no one's going to take the dive if prices oscillate between $20 and $70.
"We aren't there yet, all that is going on is a bubble in oil futures, its going to pop, and its going to be ugly when it does, and the folks who irrationally drove it up, will likely drive off in their sportscars leaving grandma and grandpa holding the bag, just like the last investment bubble."
Actually, I agree with you. As far as I can see, the last $20 - $25 per barrel of the current $70 per barrel is the result of FUD. And a lot of folks who are speculating may get their hands burned very badly.
In the meanwhile, we continue to operate with this inherently unstable system of procuring 60% of our oil, we continue to have periodic oil shocks, three of which have been causative factors in three of the last four recessions, and our foreign policy continues to be distorted by the fact that we have to deal with what are essentially failed states because they have lots of hydrocarbons under the ground directly beneath them.
I'm just looking at the alternatives to our current circumstances.
sitetest