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8- 3 -05

The Times Picayune of New Orleans
http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/metro/index.ssf?/base/news-10/112305323084850.xml

Earlier storm forecast blown away

As many as nine more hurricanes are expected
Wednesday, August 03, 2005 By Mark Schleifstein Staff writer

This year's unusually active hurricane season is about to get even busier, with an additional 11 to 13 named storms projected by Nov. 30, the end of the season, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Tuesday.

"Although we have already seen a record-setting seven tropical storms during June and July, much of the season's activity is still to come," said Gerry Bell, lead meteorologist on NOAA's "Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook," in a news release outlining the update.

The new prediction calls for seven to nine more hurricanes, including three to five hurricanes Category 3 or stronger.

That means the season could end up with 18 to 21 tropical storms, including nine to 11 hurricanes and five to seven major hurricanes.

Ivor van Heerden, deputy director of the LSU Hurricane Center, said the new forecast "is one of the scariest things I've ever seen."

He said the new prediction places more pressure on the center to provide local, state and federal emergency officials with hurricane storm surge predictions quickly. The center's predictions have been used several times this year to assist planners in determining how high water will rise on the Gulf of Mexico coastline in advance of tropical storms.

Conditions are right

Forecasters blame the increased storm activity on a combination of warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico and a lessening of wind conditions that would chop the tops off of the clouds that form hurricanes.

And such busy seasons likely will repeat for at least another 10 years, as part of a cycle of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico that began in 1995. Those conditions also produced a measurable decrease in hurricanes since 1995 in the eastern Pacific hurricane region.

NOAA forecasters said they still don't have enough understanding of hurricane processes to predict the intensity and landfall of storms this far in advance.

Colorado State University climatologist William Gray, who issues a similar forecast, estimates the statistical chances of storms making landfall by region along the Atlantic and Gulf. His August update is expected this week.

Officials urge preparations

New Orleans area emergency preparedness officials said Tuesday that they didn't need to read NOAA's warning in order to know that residents and communities should redouble their efforts to complete personal and business emergency plans, and to identify in advance where to go when an evacuation is recommended.

"This really gives us the opportunity to underscore the importance of having a plan right now, and not letting your guard down," said Kay Wilkins, director of the New Orleans regional office of the American Red Cross.

"People should look to what they need in their emergency supply kit and take time to buy what they need this weekend, and a little more next weekend," she said.

Jefferson Parish Emergency Management Director Walter Maestri said his staff is using the announcement as a tool in an intensified education program aimed at explaining the need to evacuate and the need to make an advance plan for that evacuation.

"We're emphasizing that because of our coast, because of subsidence, we're now looking at a Category 2 rather than a Category 3 hurricane as the prime trigger for an evacuation," he said.

"And because of the state evacuation plan and its evacuation routes, it is absolutely necessary for everybody to revisit their own plans," he said. "If contraflow is implemented, you're not going to be able to go willy-nilly where you wish to go."

Route planning

The state contraflow plan, implemented in phases 50 to 30 hours before a hurricane is projected to make landfall, uses all lanes of interstate highways to move traffic east and west away from New Orleans.

Maestri's staff is working on a more detailed plan to help residents identify the best routes to contraflow lanes if they are on the West Bank to the east and west of the Harvey Canal, and on the east bank to the east and west of Causeway Boulevard.

"There's only one route in the new plan that takes you to Baton Rouge, and that's the contraflow lanes on I-10," he said. "The rest of the lanes take you north on I-55 or I-59."

If many people make the wrong decision on entering the contraflow lanes, it could become a problem, he said, because a majority of Jefferson Parish residents indicated in a recent University of New Orleans poll that they plan on evacuating west to Baton Rouge, Houston or Lake Charles.

Double trouble

One of van Heerden's major worries is two storms hitting the Gulf at one time, complicating the state hurricane center's effort to complete the computations necessary for the surge models for both storms.

That potential double shot also should be planned for by evacuees, van Heerden said.

"There's a real need to get the public to understand that if we have two hurricanes just a week apart, especially if they're coming toward southeast Louisiana, people could be forced to evacuate the area and stay away for more than a week," he said.

"Start planning now, get your cars serviced, keep the gas tanks full, and when you leave, have an idea in advance of where you're going," he said.

Potential evacuees also should gather personal papers, including bank, mortgage and investment records, and put them in watertight plastic containers that can be quickly moved if an evacuation is necessary, he said.

"On the emotional side, it's very important for families to have all their family photograph albums packed in watertight containers, too," van Heerden said. "You can replace a home, but you can never replace a family photograph album."

Wilkins said the Red Cross just printed another 500,000 copies of a map of the state's emergency and contraflow plan, which also includes Red Cross tips on how to prepare family emergency plans and kits. The maps are available at local Lowe's, Wal-Mart, Home Depot and Red Cross offices.

Mark Schleifstein can be reached at mschleifstein@timespicayune.com or (504) 826-3327.