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To: American in Israel
9 out of 10 times five? Isn't that like having everyone in the room have the same birthday in five places?

No, your problem is you are looking for facts to support your hypothesis rather than the other way around. Since you are simply looking for a corrolation of events, the birthday paradox explains why you are able to do this. You are not trying to find a corroloation between specific events, simply any event.

This is quite clear in your post. In one case it is when a hurricane changed direction. In another it is when it was formed. In another it is when it hit. There is no method at all to your logic besides picking dates and trying to find a connection, no matter how loose it is.

This is no different than people who look to Nostradamus to try to explain past events. If he, or in your case the weather, is so predictable, why can't you predict what will happen ahead of time instead of simply finding a 'connection' after the fact?

123 posted on 08/31/2005 7:32:23 PM PDT by killjoy (Real Men Love Bush)
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To: killjoy
You have a point. But in two cases the very date of the formation was the moment the last people were evacuated. They were the West Bank evacuations and the Gaza Evacuations. In all cases, in a twenty four hour point of time of the triggering significant event the hurricane activity was present in one form or another.

While some argument for the birthday effect is quite relevant, it has to be in context of realistic non hurricane event time frames. If hurricanes happened every day this series of events would be worthless, but if hurricanes are rather rare events on a day to day basis, this becomes very significant.

Over all, the rarity of hurricane events and the rarity of significant events dealing with the forced surrender of Israel merging is quite telling. I listed but a few, and tended to skip over the non-hurricane events to try to keep the post topical.

Just from a purely scientific viewpoint I would like to mark each significant event where America is forcing the agenda for Israel to trade its covenant land, and check what happens in the US in the future. If events happen without consequences that will be interesting.

But Biblically, we will not have much more time to do this, as Gaza was a watershed event that will lead to the destruction of Ashdod and the reciprocal destruction of the Palestinian's.

If you are interested, the book Eye to Eye is a very intense chronicle of these events going back for years. I think after looking through it you would see far more than enough correlations to cancel the birthday effect.

And thanks for the great post! You bring up a very good point.
126 posted on 08/31/2005 10:23:18 PM PDT by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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