This should make next week interesting:
Although the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are relatively quiet in the wake of Katrina, we are watching the area off the southeast U.S. north of the Bahamas for possible tropical development this coming weekend or early next week. We've identified this region as Tropical Disturbance 38 on the current Tropical Development Outlook. As of today, the area north of the Bahamas is generally free of clouds. But with a weak frontal boundary across that area this weekend, and high pressure building to the north, thunderstorms could begin to cluster northeast of the Bahamas in a few days. If this occurs, then tropical development would be possible. A number of computer models have been suggesting such development for the past few days, in fact.
Should any development occur off the southeast U.S. Coast over the next 4-5 days, then it is possible that the area from the Florida Peninsula to North Carolina could be impacted. With high pressure blocking it to the north, it could either remain stationary or drift to the west. We cannot even rule out the possibility of any such development crossing Florida and entering the Gulf of Mexico, although we think chances of that happening are low at this time.
Elsewhere, it appears that Tropical Depression Thirteen will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee by the National Hurricane Center at 4PM CDT. It was located near 29.9N/49.9W, or about 900 miles east-southeast of the island of Bermuda. Movement is to the northeast at at 16-17 mph. Maximum sustained wind is 40 mph. Lee will be no threat to the Caribbean Sea or the east U.S. Coast. It will head out to sea into the open Atlantic and dissipate in 4-5 days.
sw