Posted on 08/29/2005 10:58:59 AM PDT by SirLinksalot
China is walking on a tightrope. It CANNOT sustain the speed and type of economic growth it has been experiencing and remain a Communist government. One of three things MUST happen and I bet it will happen within 20 years:
-the economy becomes stagnant as the Communists hang on to power and corruption (see Venezuela)
-a gradual change in the makeup of government-basic structure remains intact but new blood makes it increasingly less Communist as time goes on
-an internal revolution where the Commies are overthrown, and they rejoin Taiwan under Taiwan's system of government, or, alternately, a war with Taiwan which Taiwan WINS
While we're on this 'radical prediction' thread, let me predict the sun will rise in the east and set in the west in 2020.
And of course I wouldn't want to be running China when their pre-one-child bulge generation hits retirement age. The pensions alone will be staggering.
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a war with Taiwan which Taiwan WINS
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This is something we wish could happen but looks unlikely. China has 20 times the military size of Taiwan and manpower alone will ensure that Taiwan loses ( that is, unless allies like Japan and the USA come to the rescue ).
Be that as it may, I don't see how the collapse of China's financial system can be good for the USA. They currently hold the second largest number of our treasury debt next to Japan. A Chinese banking collapse would be bad news for the US bond market.
That's exactly what makes me nervous. The Chinese can't remain stable the way they are.
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