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the entire credibility of the national weather service and national hurricane center is on the line with this one. don't get me wrong, I am not saying its being "over hyped", I am just making an observation.

"the entire credibility of the national weather service and national hurricane center is on the line with this one. don't get me wrong, I am not saying its being "over hyped", I am just making an observation."

I disagree. It was just two days ago that this storm was at 100 mph and precicted to turn north towards the Fla. Gulf Coast. The New Orleans scenario was first predicted yesterday at NOAA's 11am update.

It took the City of New Orleans until this morning to issue official evacauation orders. There was nearly 22 hours difference between the time the evac orders were issued and the Noaa's 11.00am update yesterday.

It's a Galveston 1900 storm all over again.

The National Hurricane Center's predictions always err on the side of caution. If a hurricane is coming close to Miami, the path will initially put it on that course to scare more people into fleeing.

The National Weather Service, on the other hand, errs on the side of caution as well, but will not track a hurricane into a population center unless the track actually goes in that direction.

In either case, following the weather blogs that are out there and looking at the raw model data generally gives the true answer. NHC and NWS predictions will generally match when there is less than 18 hours to landfall.

I would not be anywhere within 125 miles of N.O. this evening for any amount of money, and being within 250 miles would take one heck of a big payoff. This is a monster, this monster is coming on shore, and the only question at this point is what percentage of the population will live and how many months it will take before the majority of people will be able to return.

I'm hopeful that this won't be the case, but nothing I've seen so far has made me confident that the levees will stand, that a large portion of southeast Louisiana will be under water, and that this will be the most expensive natural disaster in history.