Fears for 'dirty bomb' in region

The Australian ^ | 29th August 2005 | Roy Eccleston and Patrick Walters

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AUSTRALIAN nuclear experts working to prevent terrorists launching a regional "dirty bomb" attack have found large, unsecured sources of dangerous radioactive material in Southeast Asia.

In one case, radiation safety experts from the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation found a substantial piece of cobalt, used for medical therapy, which had been abandoned when a radiation therapy centre was closed.

A conventional bomb wrapped around a small stick of cobalt could contaminate a large area of a city, dramatically boost cancer rates and force out residents for decades, scientists say.

Another radioactive source, possibly also cobalt, was found in a second country in similar circumstances. About 25 other radiation centres are also being investigated in a third country.

"There are two countries where we have located quite large sources," ANSTO's chief of operations Ron Cameron told The Australian. He declined to identify them until the material had been properly secured.

ANSTO's concern came as intelligence reports from South Korea revealed that Australia had been listed by the al-Qa'ida terror network as a prime target for an attack this year.

South Korea's National Intelligence Service last week told the country's parliament that a "senior" al-Qa'ida operative arrested last month had made specific reference to Australia in a list of targets. "According to NIS, this terrorist testified that South Korea, Japan and The Philippines are secondary targets, while the US, Britain and Australia are the prime targets for this year," a South Korean parliamentarian said yesterday.

Australian intelligence agency sources said they had not received any notification of a heightened threat to Australian interests in recent days, and that the threat level determined by ASIO remained at medium. A medium-level threat means a terrorist attack on Australian soil is likely.

"It (the Korean report) just confirms what we already know - we are a target," a senior government source told The Australian.

There has been no change in ASIO's threat assessment since the attacks on the US of September 11, 2001.

It is understood that the South Korean report originated from a recent security assessment considered by the Korean parliament and which also drew on published assessments of al-Qa'ida capability from several months ago.

Mr Cameron said the ready availability of loose radioactive material suitable for dirty bombs had been a concern of Australia for the past year. Spurred by the September 11 attacks and working with US experts, Australian officials have been scouring the region for loose radioactive material. Secure storage areas have been built and systems created to track, control and secure radioactive material left over from medical and industrial use.

"The system is only as strong as the weakest link," Mr Cameron said. "If there's an area of the world where terrorists can get hold of the material then that's where they'll go."

Southeast Asia has already been shown to be a breeding ground for terrorists. "We've had Bali, so the question would be: How much worse would that have been if it had been a dirty bomb?"

Two of the key isotopes of concern are cobalt, which has been used to expose patients to gamma rays as part of cancer therapy, and caesium, which sometimes comes in powder form.

Wrapped in conventional explosives, cobalt or caesium would be effective "terror weapons" if exploded in a city centre or railway station, Mr Cameron said. The destructive power would be limited but the contamination - and potential harm from cancers - could be significant. "It would spread the radiation around so it contaminated people and places - now that is terror.

"It actually would not do much damage in terms of killing people because a dirty bomb is not a weapon of mass destruction - it's a matter of mass disruption."

The Federation of American Scientists gave examples to the US Senate in 2002 of the impact of dirty bombs made from both types of material.

A single 30cm rod of cobalt dispersed by conventional explosives in lower Manhattan would badly contaminate 300 city blocks. Residents who remained would have an increased risk of cancer for the next 40 years and demolition of parts of the city might be necessary, the scientists said.

A medical gauge containing caesium, exploded in 4.5kg of TNT, would create a radioactive cloud that would kill no one immediately but cause long-term health problems. In five surrounding city blocks, residents would have a one in 1000 chance of developing cancer.

ANSTO has spent the past year working with Asian and Pacific countries to identify radiation sources - mostly used by medical and manufacturing industries - and secure them or ship them back to their makers. Experts from 11 Southeast Asian countries will meet in Sydney today for an International Atomic Energy Agency-sponsored meeting on the best way to protect the material.

In one country, an entire radiotherapy machine was found with the radioactive source inside. In another case, the material was removed, put in a container, then "just abandoned".

While concern about dirty bombs remains high, some Western intelligence analysts are sceptical about al-Qa'ida's ability to launch another major conventional attack similar to that of September 11. Experts believe the leadership, currently in hiding, is unable to strike, leaving it to groups inspired by Osama Bin Laden to take the initiative.