I agree mostly. The top of the market in Loudoun was pretty obvious back in June while at the same time the less expensive properties closer in are still selling like hotcakes. Where I disagree is with the gentrification thing. I lived in "gentrified" Jamaica Plain in Boston during the late 80's and it didn't take long to ungentrify after the "rental quality" RE market crashed (e.g. condos dropping 50%). Also there are a ton of rentals inside the beltway for those people just moving in or selling at the peak. The rent is generally a lot less than the interest payments on the same property without the high taxes.
I live in McLean. The market remains hot and there is still a building boom to use what little land is left for residential units. Presuming the extenison of the Metro out to Dulles including Tysons' Corner, real estate vaules will continue to increase in the area, including Loudoun County.
Where I disagree is with the gentrification thing. I lived in "gentrified" Jamaica Plain in Boston during the late 80's and it didn't take long to ungentrify after the "rental quality" RE market crashed (e.g. condos dropping 50%).
I have lived in the area on and off since 1970. The gentrification of DC has been admittedly slow but inevitable. It has to do with money. Blacks are cashing in and moving out to Prince George's County to have better schools and less crime. DC's population declined about 6% from 1990 to 2000, but it is on the upswing now, but still less than 1990. The white and others population is increasing. According to the 2000 census, blacks make up about 60% of the population, down from the 65.8% in 1990 or about 50,000 less in 2000.
Also there are a ton of rentals inside the beltway for those people just moving in or selling at the peak. The rent is generally a lot less than the interest payments on the same property without the high taxes.
No doubt that as real estate prices go up, rentals will become more attractive. The DC area has always had a greater turnover than most cities in terms of people coming and going. USG employees (including military) move in and out of the area more frequently than the average and the changes wrought by politics causes turnover as well.