I sold in Vienna, but too early (2002) because I thought prices were already too high then. So I have a long commute now, but my monthly payments of all types is about $400 or so. I disagree about Loudoun county, I thought there could be one more burst of buying with short supply to drive up prices some more, but now supply has swamped demand. Those 500 tract mansions are not going to be bought at their current prices since speculators have stopped buying and are now selling and the people in Herndon who want to trade up to a tract mansion are priced out.
Most people don't buy their personal residence as an investment. It is where they want to live. They are somewhat insulated from the "housing bubble" presuming they have fixed mortgage rates. Over time housing costs should decrease as a part of their budget just from inflation alone. What has been painful for those of us living in areas of rapid appreciation is the escalating property tax bill. Unless you take some equity out (and increase your debt) increasing home values look great on paper but the net effect is higher taxes. Longer commutes also mean higher gas bills.
I disagree about Loudoun county, I thought there could be one more burst of buying with short supply to drive up prices some more, but now supply has swamped demand. Those 500 tract mansions are not going to be bought at their current prices since speculators have stopped buying and are now selling and the people in Herndon who want to trade up to a tract mansion are priced out.
You may be right in the short term, but not in the long term. When I first moved here in 1970, Tysons Corner was far out. Dulles was a sleepy little airport dwarfed by National. The entire Dulles corridor has been built out, Dulles has doubled in size physically and I would wager that passenger throughput has risen exponentially. The entire area is growing faster than the supply of housing. Eventually, we will see a second Beltway. The demographics will mandate an increase in the housing supply.
Loudon County is the fastest-growing county in the country. From a March 2005 WP article: "With plenty of new jobs being created in Loudoun, and house hunters looking increasingly to Washington's western suburbs for lower-priced property, home sales in the county rose to 11,935 in 2004 from 10,121 in 2003 and 7,762 in 2002."
"But in another sign that Loudoun is no longer the bargain spot it once was, the median sales price jumped to $420,000 in 2004 from $344,000 a year earlier."
"That lifted prices in Loudoun ahead of neighboring Fairfax County, where the median home price was $415,000 last year.