In general I'm a defender of the NHC but the 45 kts at the 12 hour position strikes me as a bit silly; it's basically only about 3-4 hours from being back over water now; and that causes the rest of the intensities to be underforecast.
Have never been much of an Avila fan.
And the Gulf is warmer than a bathtub right about now...
45kts does seem low... especially considering how slowly it has weakened thus far. If it exits as soon as it seems it will, it should be stronger than that. If she manages to linger, maybe..