Yes and no, maybe? During a sleepless early morning I was musing, thinking first from the reports/surmises that Israel has nukes and an operational submarine....
First scenario: What's the (political) fallout of an "untraceable" ocean launch on Natanz? Okay, bad because the US *and* Israel will be implicated (even were one party innocent.)
Second scenario: (Assuming the sub can launch two missiles and one can get high enough): What's the (political) fallout of first, an "untraceable" ocean launch resulting in an EMP bust over Iran, followed by a launch on Natanz? Bad for the mullahs; their communications will be cut, they will not be able to call in defenses, it will be a local matter of who is stronger -- their forces or the populace. Downside: later on it will come out that Iran has been nuked. Bad effect on the populace, I think.
Third scenario: What's the (political) fallout of simply an "untraceable" ocean launch resulting in an EMP bust over Iran? (Natanz will likely be inoperable following such.) Same conditions as before, but without the following negative reactions. Yes, everything electronic (including cars) is wrecked... but the popular opposition, which outnumbers the mullahs and their bought enforcers (incl. the bassiji), would have the upper hand. Focused mobilization is the mullahs' strength, and this would deny them that, no?
interesting.... the EMP ruins all electics forever? until re-wired?
'Iran’s aversion to war with America has a lot less to do with philosophy and more to do with available weaponry' tempts me for a new tagline......
The question of how to handle Iran’s nuclear ambitions looms like a mushroom cloud on the horizon.
Yes and no, maybe?
Any launch of a nuclear device can and will be traced.
It would be disastrous for the Iranian people if such a thing were to happen, even accidentally.
Granted, the Mullahs are outnumbered by the people. but if, as a result of a nuclear strike, the country were crippled, that could result in anarchy and chaos. There are other ways to disable the nuclear developments there, but they require secrecy and precision. I am sure there are pepole on the ground looking into what is feasible even now....