Posted on 08/23/2005 1:54:03 PM PDT by steenkeenbadges
Summary: If an influenza pandemic struck today, borders would close, the global economy would shut down, international vaccine supplies and health-care systems would be overwhelmed, and panic would reign. To limit the fallout, the industrialized world must create a detailed response strategy involving the public and private sectors.
Michael T. Osterholm is Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, Associate Director of the Department of Homeland Security's National Center for Food Protection and Defense, and Professor at the University of Minnesota's School of Public Health.
(Excerpt) Read more at foreignaffairs.org ...
FEAR ITSELFDating back to antiquity, influenza pandemics have posed the greatest threat of a worldwide calamity caused by infectious disease. Over the past 300 years, ten influenza pandemics have occurred among humans. The most recent came in 1957-58 and 1968-69, and although several tens of thousands of Americans died in each one, these were considered mild compared to others. The 1918-19 pandemic was not. According to recent analysis, it killed 50 to 100 million people globally. Today, with a population of 6.5 billion, more than three times that of 1918, even a "mild" pandemic could kill many millions of people.
Anybody taking bets on what may happen when this killer virus hits Europe and the U.S. ? One thing is certain: The world economy may take a nose dive. The housing bubble in the U.S. may lose all its hot air in a really big hurry.
bttt for later read
Something else is certain. The USA is defenseless. Shut the borders down? Give me a break!!! We are doomed.
I really hate to say this and it is going to sound like I am a looney but when the Anthrax scare was going on, I e-mailed my ex-boss and asked for four scripts for my family.
He told me that if I filled them immediately, they would probably go bad before I could use them and at the time of the breakout, it would be impossible to get.
He said to stock up on Benedryl and if my girls should get infected just sedate them until they are gone. It would be all I could do in a Pandemic.
I have Benedryl on supply right now.
Prayer and Benedryl. I think God will take care of us, even if it is calling us home.
This disease is hemorrhagic - meaning your whole body bleeds, and you can be dead in 24 hours.
I recommend a website that gives all the updated (truthful) information: arkinstitute.com.
There's a lot of specious reasoning in this article. Comparing Modern Medical Practices, to those of 1918-19, for instance....
I'd also like to know how they can estimate the number of chickens and pigs in China in 1968. Or now, for that matter.
I *do* think, though that there are a few good points - the infrastructure for producing flu vaccine needs to be revamped. And, I was unaware (although not surprised) that the company that makes masks outsources most of its production. Strikes me as strange that key industries tie themselves to transportation that will shut down in the event of a disaster that the industry is needed to fix. Bad planning on their part.
"Tamiflu (try to get any of that!), Relenza and Oseltamivir"
Tamiflu and Oseltamivir are the same thing- Tamiflu is just the brand name. And I had no trouble buying some for my family from an internet pharmacy in Europe for a couple of hundred bucks.
Borders would close? Might be worth having the flu...
This is very serious stuff.
True, but, in this case, I'd say the comment is only mildly helpful. Point is, get it while you can. Please post the online source for those who want to take action? Thx!
That was my first thought! It may the the ONLY way our wonderful politicians would allow the borders to be closed. Then again....
"Please post the online source for those who want to take action? Thx!"
Here's where I got mine- arrived in my mailbox about 10 days later.
http://www.mastersmarketing.com/price_o.htm
Oseltamivir Tamiflu 75mg Caps 10 48.50 Influenza
Oseltamivir Tamiflu 12mg/ml Oral suspension 30g 48.50 Influenza
I keep going back to this past fall/winter/spring
when there was a world wide shortage of flu shots.
the world, as we know it, didn't come to an end, despite dire predictions.
No spike in flu cases, no increase in hospitalizations from flu, no increase in deaths of seniors....
Anecdotally, I have 2 senior friends who didn't get the shot this year and, coincidentally ?, didn't get sick, like they normally did.
In short order, the global economy would shut down. The commodities and services countries would need to "survive" the next 12 to 36 months would have to be identified. Currently, most businesses' continuity plans account for only a localized disruption -- a single plant closure, for instance -- and have not planned for extensive, long-term outages.
Yes illegals would likely be less of an issue- good thing. But... we import 60% of our crude oil, 12+ million barrels a day- what happens if we lose that with trade shutdown. The SPR holds only 700 million barrels at a maximal, non sustainable draw rate of about 4 million barrels. How about consumer goods. Check out Wal-mart, Target, really almost any store. How many items are stamped with made in America? What would we do if most of those imported goods were suddenly unavailable. Make them here? And how long would that take?
Just google Tamiflu. Lots of places to order from. Amantadine is also effective against the strains of the flu that have been identified as affecting humans. That's also available online. Sambucol is effective against viruses and may prevent influenza if taken prophylacticly. Also available online.
Just google any of the names. This stuff is readily available.
PS, the article from CFR was posted on the Avian Flu Surveillance thread (which see) and discussed some time ago.
There is also an Avian Flu Preparation Project thread with information on it.
Nice to see you!
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