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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast/Advisory Number 1

Statement as of 21:00Z on August 23, 2005

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
tropical warning Storm Warning for the central and northwestern
Bahamas.

A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of
southern Florida later tonight.

Tropical depression center located near 23.2n 75.5w at 23/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 7 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 23.2n 75.5w at 23/2100z
at 23/1800z center was located near 23.0n 75.2w

forecast valid 24/0600z 24.0n 76.5w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 50sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 24/1800z 25.0n 77.7w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 25/0600z 25.7n 78.5w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 25/1800z 26.0n 79.4w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 35ne 25se 25sw 35nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 70nw.

Forecast valid 26/1800z 26.3n 81.0w...inland
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 60nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 27/1800z 26.5n 83.5w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.

Outlook valid 28/1800z 27.5n 86.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 23.2n 75.5w

next advisory at 24/0300z

forecaster Stewart