"***but it's below that 10^50 threshold of impossibility. Do I got that right? It looks as though we at least have some numbers to chew on. Thanks again for posting it.
The 1050 number given, is an arbitrary number taken from Borel's law which was a rule of thumb that stated 'Phenomena with very small probabilities do not occur'.
*Borel stated that 'It is evident that the requirements with respect to the degree of certainty imposed on the single law of chance will vary depending on whether we deal with scientific certainty or the certainty which suffices in a given circumstance of everyday life'. For example: He states that 10-6 is negligible on a "human scale", 10-9 is negligible on a "terrestrial" scale, 10-50 on a cosmic scale and 10-10-10 on a supercosmic scale.
In other words, it all depends. Borel himself stated that it is not possible to apply any probability calculation to the appearance of life on our planet.
Without knowledge of the initial conditions at the beginning, any probability calculation made is meaningless. *Taken from a paper on talkorigins
Cool, thanks for posting that.
In other words, it all depends. Borel himself stated that it is not possible to apply any probability calculation to the appearance of life on our planet.
***For purposes of public policy, this number seems to have become the one that defines possibility. If it isn't a good number, that means it's time to develop a new one that makes sense on a scientific level.
Without knowledge of the initial conditions at the beginning, any probability calculation made is meaningless.
***I've heard that we have samples of the air from hundreds of millions of years ago due to molecules captured in buckyballs formed by meteorites that fell during that time. That would be a good starting point. And as far as the probability calculation being meaningless, that may be true scientifically but it does not necessarily mean that it is meaningless for public policy. When someone needs to hang his hat, he'll put it on your candlestick if it's close to the door.