Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Torie; general_re; PatrickHenry; Oztrich Boy; cajungirl; jwalsh07; scripter; RadioAstronomer; ...
(I'm again pinging the other people who've been involved in this discussion, and a couple others who I think might find this interesting. Feel free to let me know if my pings are unwelcome!)

Part I

OK, the remaining questions deal with sociopolitical arrangements, and in particular resource distribution (economic arrangements). As a reminder, these were the four questions as framed:

  1. Will the progeny just off their elders out of frustration for power after waiting in the wings for a hundred years or so?
  2. Just how productive will 500 year olds be?
  3. If not very productive, how will they be supported?
  4. What are the consequences of a society dominated by geezers, with very few "young" folks relatively speaking?

To begin with, let's just cut to the chase. The most rational solution to all these questions is en masse whole person emulation in a virtual world simulation on a sprawling quantum computing network - with redundant hardware, power supplies, and automated service techs scattered across the solar system and remote monitoring/operating capability from inside the VR. For all practical intents and purposes resources would then be limitless, and lifespans would be interminable, unless the virtual world were programmed otherwise. At the very least one could live until the death of the sun, if not beyond. What one would do with all that time is an excellent question, but I suppose one could opt to have the ability to sense boredom removed from one's personality.

I don't express this often (in order to conceal just how 'out there' I really am) but this seems to be the obvious outcome of civilization, and a quite viable explanation for why we don't see others galavanting around the galaxy. In a sense, it is the ultimate end of history, except of course that without dramatic psychological modification, which I think implausible (people wouldn't agree to be uploaded), novel threats and conflicts would surely emerge within the system. Hypothetically, we might be living in such a reality already; of course, if that's the case, then our programmers were obviously either deeply incompetent or quite malevolent, or this might be the aftermath of a dreadful hacking, or we may just be an artefact of a system designed to create randomized settings to be discovered far away from the home milieu of the original builders. Or we might be a virus. Who knows?!

There's no way to know, unless there were glitches in the system, and those would just be perceived as paranormal events in any case (if they were common enough, they'd likely be perceptually incorporated into the 'rules' of the system). My point is that a virtual system complex enough to simulate all the phenomena of the real world (assuming our world is 'the real world') or a close enough approximation would be indistinguishable from the real world, but if programmed accordingly would provide anything we wanted it to provide, including immortality and unlimited resources.

Anyhow, leaving all that aside, the first notion that we should dispense with is that physically 'aged' people in a society of perpetual youth (under our previous, more mundane scenario) will be socially 'old' people as we perceive them to be. For one thing, they won't technically even be aged in the sense that this conveys in present usage. A 500 year old will be potentially as productive as a twenty year old, unless we are dealing with issues of 'neural entropy' as we discussed before. In the event that we simply eliminated aging as we know it without any further rejuvenative intervention, you would also have progressive DNA structure deterioration (through random errors), and that would be a serious concern, but every scenario that I'm aware of that's been proposed for longevity also provides ready solutions to this problem (sequence the person's DNA at the outset and routinely correct errors).

So, getting back to the point, 500 year olds should be no less productive than they are required to be; in other words, they should be as autonomous and vigorous as a 25 year old, because physically and mentally they will be a 25 year old, just with a whole lot more stored in memory. We cannot predict what the effect would be of 'neural entropy' because we simply don't know how it would manifest, and it should not manifest until at least after a couple millennia under our current physiology. If people do become unproductive enough at about that stage that they must be supported by others, the support base should be more than adequate to support them under much the same arrangement as is currently in place, because 'attrition' should keep this population below around a quarter of the total.

Odds are that unless we are missing some critical factor this will be a non-issue. Moreover, a key part of the equation is just how much productivity is actually required of an individual. The more likely concern, due to increased automation and nanosynthesis, will be that there won't be enough productivity demanded of people. We are already seeing this unfold in 'post-industrial' society; we are already for political reasons artificially elevating the degree of productivity required of workers as a whole (though hardly anyone frames it that way). In short, the overall trajectory of technological advance suggests that our lifestyles will become dominated by leisure rather than industry. What we will do with all that, who knows? A lot of people 'don't know' how to do much of anything else. I guess they'll just have to find lots of hobbies..

Which brings us to the fourth question above. There are two things to be said to that:

(a) While I think society is likely to stratify based on length of life lived, from a physical standpoint everyone would be a coequal of everyone else. In other words, it would be as if the world were filled with twenty-somethings, just some of the twenty-somethings had been around a whole lot longer than others. Past the first century, they'd be all but indistinguishable; our 700 year olds could pass as 100 year olds just as easily. This assumes no further social compartmentation, which is a very dubious assumption to say the least (it'll happen). But, to the extent that that will happen, it will be because that's what people as a whole want to have happen, not because it must happen.

(b) In contemporary society most of our lives are governed by the demands of child raising (contrary to popular opinion, this wasn't always the case, especially for men, but that's another discussion altogether). This would obviously change. My view is that self-indulgence would naturally become much more of a priority - to the great consternation of the more Puritan-minded among us.. I guess people would do with that whatever they felt would make them happy. I know I could happily spend at least a couple hundred years moving around the world myself. The final answer to your question though is that a "society dominated by geezers" in this case would hardly be a massive nursing home as the phrasing suggests, but more like an extended yuppie happy hour. =)

People have always managed to find things to occupy their time, and ennui is hardly a more awful prospect than drudgery, which humanity seems to deal with well enough when need be..

Going back to the first question, it's not entirely clear what kind of power you're referring to: political, social, economic? Historically, people have wanted power because it leads to prosperity - fame and fortune - and also the often unstated reason (frequently unacknowledged by the 'powerful' even to themselves) of sexual mastery over oneself and (perhaps more importantly) over others. It's unclear how much of a motivator this will be in a future society; the benefits of power have already broken down and are breaking down further in Western society. Modern civilization is in the idealized sense a civilization of universal empowerment. All of our sociopolitical institutions are oriented in that direction, and to the extent that they fall short, it is due to resource limitations. At the very least one would expect that the urgency of securing power would be reduced in a society of millennial lifespans.

One obvious solution, if this is actually a problem, is term limits, and term limits can be implemented across an array of endeavors if necessary (not just the political sphere). So, by example, in another hundred years, you might be told that you've been a lawyer long enough, and it's time to actually go find something positive to do with your life! ;^) But, I don't really think it'll come to anything like that myself. By comparison to the present, the future will likely be both socialist and individualized. That's just the way it's likely to be. All of this is determined by resource limitations, and as practical limitations are steadily reduced, the outcome seems inevitable over the long run.

I think I'll just stop here for now and see whether I've adequately responded to the issues you've raised. BTW, the most difficult question of all, that you did not raise, is what if longevity is expensive, and not universally available. That is a whole 'nother can o' whoopass there..

929 posted on 08/23/2005 6:42:10 PM PDT by AntiGuv ("Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." Philip K. Dick)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 870 | View Replies ]


To: AntiGuv

Fact is the machines can produce most of we need for bare life. We should each put in 40 years or so tending the machines, and then we can catch up on the reading we were supposed to do in school for the next 400 years.


930 posted on 08/23/2005 6:49:11 PM PDT by RightWhale (Withdraw from the 1967 UN Outer Space Treaty and open the Land Office)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 929 | View Replies ]

To: AntiGuv
Wow, that is quite a post. It posits technology as the universal solvent for most of the problems. If it isn't the universal solvent, and some things advance rapidly, while others do not, like letting geezers hang on as geezers, then it will tend to fall apart. The power issue is a serious one. Those with the connections and skill tend to want to simply hang on, while in good health. Younger folks get impatient. I refer to the Shakespeare play, King Lear. I also wonder about 30 billion folks on this planet. Again, that assumes technology gets solves everything. Right now, Jared Diamond in his latest book (the Guns, Germs and Steel guy) suggests that we are not too far away from maxing out on the amount of food that can be reaped from photosynthesis, and we are meanwhile expending top soil rather rapidly. Iowa, with perhaps the deepest top soil on earth, thanks to the glaciers, has lost more than half of it so far. Regulating reproduction if folks are young and virile for hundreds of years, will require a rather authoritarian regime. Indeed much of the brave knew world requires that, including the notion, that folks have to give up their jobs just because.

In any event, nice job, but putting aside my other points, the key to breaking out of the puzzle palace is assuming all the technological solvents advance in tandem, synchronously, with rather precise metier and rhythm, as in a well crafted symphony. Absent that you get discordant notes.

931 posted on 08/23/2005 7:10:45 PM PDT by Torie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 929 | View Replies ]

To: AntiGuv
To begin with, let's just cut to the chase. The most rational solution to all these questions is en masse whole person emulation in a virtual world simulation on a sprawling quantum computing network ...

If I understand this, it sounds like an almost eternal session on FreeRepublic. I don't think I could handle that for a span of centuries.

933 posted on 08/23/2005 7:19:54 PM PDT by PatrickHenry (Felix, qui potuit rerum cognoscere causas. The List-O-Links is at my homepage.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 929 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson