Posted on 08/18/2005 7:37:13 AM PDT by freakboy
World running out of time for oil alternatives Aug 18 9:45 AM US/Eastern
By Anna Mudeva
PETTEN, Netherlands (Reuters) - The world could run out of time to develop cleaner alternatives to oil and other fossil fuels before depletion drives prices through the roof, a leading Dutch energy researcher said on Thursday.
Ton Hoff, manager of the Energy Research Center of the Netherlands, said it could take decades to make alternatives affordable to the point where they can be used widely, although high oil prices were already stimulating such research.
"If we run out of fossil fuels -- by the time the oil price hits 100 dollars or plus, people will be screaming for alternatives, but whether they will be available at that moment of time -- that's my biggest worry," Hoff said.
"That's why we need to use fossil fuels in a more efficient way to have some more time to develop these alternatives up to a level where the robustness is guaranteed and their price has come down ... This could take decades for some technologies."
Stubbornly high oil prices have renewed worldwide interest in sustainable energy sources, such as solar, wind and biomass as well as biofuels.
But the world currently covers just some two percent of its energy needs with renewables as high costs and mixed policy initiatives hinder a wide-spread usage.
"The high oil price makes people at least think about alternatives ... For us it's a definitely a stimulus to work even harder than before," Hoff said.
LOWERING COSTS
ECN, one of Europe's leading energy research institutes, is working to improve or develop new technologies to boost efficiency and lower the costs of power production from wind, solar and biomass, he said.
ECN researchers are trying to raise the energy conversion efficiency of solar panels to above 20 percent from the current 17 percent, while reducing costs.
"In 10-15 years, I expect that solar energy conversion could be in competition with electricity produced from coal," Hoff said. He believes the Netherlands has the potential to cover a large part of its power needs with solar energy.
ECN is also researching to increase the size of wind power turbines from the 3 megawatt a turbine produces now to 5 or 6 MW. This could be done by raising the height to 100 meters from 70 now and enlarging wings span to 120 meters from 90, he said.
ECN is also part of the $225 million "Global Climate and Energy Project" led by the U.S. University of Stanford and financed by General Electric, Toyota, Schlumberger and ExxonMobil.
The project aims to crack new technologies on fuel cells, which make electricity from hydrogen and emit only water vapor, energy production from biomass and separation and storage of carbon dioxide (CO2). The greenhouse CO2 gas is released when burning fossil fuels and is blamed for global warming.
Under the project, ECN will develop a new type of membrane reactor, which will separate CO2 during the process of producing hydrogen from fossil fuels, Hoff said. The CO2 could later be stored by companies in depleted gas or oil fields.
Hoff and other researchers say a transition to the so-called hydrogen economy could take decades as the cost of building new hydrogen-burning cars and power plants and storing CO2 are huge.
To test hydrogen usage in real life, ECN is in talks with the northern Dutch island of Texel to install hydrogen-based facilities, which would supply electricity to homes and offices.
"The idea is to see the pitfalls, fix them ... and prepare for the future. My hopes are that this will stimulate the usage of this type of new technology because it is extremely important to have it in real life rather than in laboratories," Hoff said.
Two words... "Sustainable Oil".
Maybe this time the sky really will fall in!
Don't worry the oil or death crowd will be cast out of fantasy land as gas prices rise.
I'm all for drilling here but I'm not fooled into thinking that it will have much impact on gas prices. I like the thought of telling the oil and terrorist producing nations to stuff it.
Solution for democrat voters who complain about gasoline prices?? -- QUIT VOTING FOR DEMOCRAT POLITICIANS WHO WON'T ALLOW US TO DRILL FOR OUR OWN OIL!!!
There is more than enough farmland in Sibera, the US, Canada and Argentina...to cover this requirement. The Arabs may make their Trillions...but farmers are going to have the last word on this episode.
I believe that 1.2 trillion barrels of oil (shale) are out in Wyoming/Colorado/Utah. As long as a barrel of oil stays above $50, it's economically feasible to extract.
Anybody know more about this than me?
Good idea, bad econ.
Their real life plant costs about $80 per barrel. I think they could get that cost down somewhat, but they are selling dollar bills for 80 cents.
If oil does go up to $100 per barrel reverse the numbers.
I do like the tech!!!
DK
Re Turkey Fuel story -- fascinating, but that was Nov 2003 story, almost 2 years ago now. Do you know of an update on the progress of the project??
Ok, I don't mean to sound foolish, but can someone please explain the bbl prices? Production is increased, demand hasn't shot up significantly... we do have a limit in the US to how much oil we can successfully refine (since we haven't built a new refinery in nearly 1.5 generations now).... but this would not affect bbl pricing of crude.
So, what is going on? Same thing that was going on with Electric and Energy prices in Cali in 2001? Market manipulators intentionally driving up prices to make $$ or what?
Demand has not outstripped production, but the price still keeps climbing... it doesn't make sense, unless you have some profiteering going on somewhere.
I think that there is indeed plenty of oil to get the world by until the next big thing, and going after the untapped resources in America is long over due.
That next big thing could be things like Zero Point Energy.
There are breakthroughs all through human history. Another leap in technology is inevitable. It could be right around the corner.
Yes, China and India are using more oil, but production has kept up even with their demands... there isn't a shortage of supply... so this run up is not based on actual state of affairs as far as I can tell...
Looks to me like either panicy "bubble" type mentality by futures buyers, or flat out manipulation and profiteering.
This one is dated from July 5 of this year. It looks like Philly and Missouri have Pilot Programs. It looks like the "lifting" (cost to get it out of the ground) cost is a lot more than in Mid. East, but a little higher than what the cost to get oil from Alaska or the gulf. I imagine the start up costs are a lot lower as well. The Missouri plan is expected to handle 200 tons of turkey parts in 24 hours and that cost *only* 20 mil. (i have no idea if that's good or not :) )
http://www.nerdshit.com/archive/2005/07/05/anything_into_o/
Stopped reading. We will never run out of fossill fuels, this guy is obviously just trying to get his name in the paper.
Yikes doesn't look like the MO plant is making money and the estimates where off, way off.
Everyone is rushing to stock up on the oil that they will need for their future operations under the fear that it will be more expense later and/or that supplies will be disrupted later. Added to this are financial players who buy oil under the theory that they will be able to sell it later at a higher price.
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