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To: John Valentine
Crude oil is relatively fungible across world markets. Whatever oil he sells elsewhere simply displaces other oil that becomes available to us.

 Then how come the ChiComs have locked up Venezuelan and Iranian oil in long term agreements. Trade deals. Arms for crude deals.

Answer:
Oil isn't as fungible as you think. In a dramatic oil supply squeeze you will find it's  fungibility dropping

18 posted on 08/17/2005 8:19:32 AM PDT by dennisw (G_D : Against Amelek for all generations)
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To: dennisw

You're mixing up two different things, dennis. An oil squeeze has nothing to do with the fungibility of oil, which is demonstrably true.


19 posted on 08/17/2005 8:46:30 AM PDT by beckett
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To: dennisw
Then how come the ChiComs have locked up Venezuelan and Iranian oil in long term agreements.

The Chinese are trying to do several things at once with these deals. First. they are trying to cut deals that will give them oil at a predictable cost, less subject to fluctuation than the spot price. Second, they are trying to obtain oil at a below market price by offering sellers the chance to have a stable long term deal. Third, they are trying to use their petro-purchasing power to leverage a geo-political advantage and to disadvantage nations they see as long-term strategic rivals - like the USA. Fourth, they are trying to substitute barter for cash whenever possible to ease pressures on their foreign excchange reserves.

All these actions are typical of a state-controlled economy and reflect weakness, not strength.

And yes, oil isn't PERFECTLY fungible. Thaat's why I said it is relatively fungible. There are big differences in the composition of crudes from around the world. Most refineries are optimized for particular crudes. Venezuelan crude, if I recall correctly, requires some special refining processes to deal with its high sulfer content. Still, I stand by my central point.

22 posted on 08/17/2005 12:06:32 PM PDT by John Valentine
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