I know I sound like a broken record on these fora, but their possession of our national debt instruments is a greater threat than any dozen aircraft carriers.
Additionally, in the litoral waters within the 1st island chain, covered by their significant numbers of land based air, a couple of carriers backed up with large numbers of their new AEGIS-like DDG's, would present a much more difficult task for us.
All of the bravado not withstanding, we are foolish to underestimate them.
This is only true up to the point of hostilities. At that point we both confiscate each others assets, which means we don't repay the debt. Thus, they have a great deal to lose if we actually go to war. If I were cynical, I'd suggest borrowing heavily from them and then pushing them just as heavily on Taiwan.
I don't understand. What is the threat ... that they'll stop buying our debt? Then, to whom will they export?
there is an old expression. When you ow the bank a little bit of money, the bank owns you. owe the bank a huge anount of money, and you own the bank.
China does something stupid, and they will die a very fast economic death. Their supply of oil would dry up overnight and maybe in advance of any expected hostilities. You think for a second that oil shippers would dare refuse a United States embargo under threat of force? No way.
actually, its a two way street -- in time of war or threat of war we can always repudiate the debt, or forceably convert the instruments to "war bonds" with a mandatory holding period...