Can you source these stats? Some are pretty obviously off the wall. I doubt anyone here can claim that ALL of their no dead relatives and friends had been involved in at least 1 injury accident.
The US Department of Transportation estimates that the typical driver will have a near automobile accident one to two times per month and all will be in a collision of some type on average every 6 years. According to the National Safety Council (NSA), there are more than 12 million motor vehicle accidents annually that involve more than 20 million vehicles. Of these accidents, about 6.4 million are nonfatal, over 2 million are injurious and about 4.3 million are property damage only. The following charts are from the NHTSA:
Chart 6 Occupant Fatalities in 2002
By Age and Restraint Use, In Passenger Vehicles
Age Group | Restrained | Percent Restrained | Unrestrained | Percent Unrestrained | Total | Total Percent |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0-4 | 274 | 59.6% | 185 | 40.4% | 459 | 100% |
5-9 | 205 | 51.4% | 195 | 48.6% | 400 | 100% |
10-15 | 350 | 37.7% | 576 | 62.3% | 926 | 100% |
16-20 | 1,999 | 35.5% | 3,626 | 64.5% | 5,625 | 100% |
21-24 | 1,199 | 32.6% | 2,477 | 67.4% | 3,676 | 100% |
25-44 | 3,232 | 32.7% | 6,656 | 67.3% | 9,888 | 100% |
45-64 | 2,947 | 46.8% | 3,353 | 53.2% | 6,300 | 100% |
65-74 | 1,253 | 58.5% | 887 | 41.5% | 2,140 | 100% |
75+ | 1,983 | 63.9% | 1,122 | 36.1% | 3,105 | 100% |
TOTAL | 13,448 | 41.4% | 19,071 | 58.6% | 32,519 | 100% |
Chart 7 Occupants Killed or Injured In 2002
By Injury Severity, In Passenger Vehicles
Injury Severity | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age Group | Killed | Incapacitating* | Non- incapacitating |
Possible Injury | Injury Severity Unknown | Total Injured | Total |
0-4 | 459 | 6,588 | 15,552 | 35,602 | 783 | 58,525 | 58,984 |
5-9 | 400 | 7,038 | 21,087 | 42,822 | 758 | 71,705 | 72,105 |
10-15 | 926 | 12,569 | 34,745 | 74,536 | 1,062 | 122,912 | 123,838 |
16-20 | 5,625 | 56,053 | 149,645 | 266,200 | 4,167 | 476,065 | 481,690 |
21-24 | 3,676 | 35,973 | 89,255 | 166,995 | 3,302 | 295,525 | 299,201 |
25-44 | 9,888 | 99,504 | 227,077 | 595,110 | 7,912 | 929,603 | 939,491 |
45-64 | 6,300 | 57,286 | 118,747 | 343,343 | 3,711 | 523,087 | 529,387 |
65-74 | 2,140 | 13,343 | 32,042 | 65,376 | 391 | 111,152 | 113,292 |
75+ | 3,105 | 14,604 | 28,096 | 49,983 | 422 | 93,105 | 96,210 |
TOTAL | 32,519 | 302,957 | 716,246 | 1,639,968 | 22,507 | 2,681,678 | 2,714,197 |
*An incapacitating injury is any injury, other than a fatal injury, that prevents the injured person from walking, driving, or normally continuing the activities the person was capable of performing before the injury occurred.
It should be noted that 4,563,000 cases were reported by emergency departments to the CDC classified as "autmobile injury" in 2000.
According to Federal Highway Administration statistics for 2000:
Fatal Crash Occupant Statistics by Restraint Use | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
restraint use | Survived | Percent | Killed | Percent | Total | Percent | |
yes | 31,328 | 73% | 11,622 | 27% | 42,950 | 52.4% | |
no | 13,985 | 44% | 17,672 | 56% | 31,657 | 38.6% | |
unknown | 4,742 | 64% | 2,616 | 36% | 7,358 | 8.9% | |
TOTAL | 50,055 | 60.3% | 31910 | 39.6% | 81965 | 100% |
Vehicle Occupant Statistics by Restraint Use | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
restraint use | Uninjured | Percent | Injured | Percent | Total | Percent | |
yes | 2,114,000 | 47% | 2,351,000 | 53% | 4,465,000 | 81.4% | |
no | 152,000 | 30% | 359,000 | 70% | 511,000 | 9.3% | |
unknown | 311,000 | 61% | 199,000 | 39% | 511,000 | 9.3% | |
TOTAL | 2,577,000 | 46% | 25503559 | 54% | 5487000 | 100% |
Given that there are an estimated 296 million people in the U.S.A., according to the above statistics, the probability for any person in the U.S.A. to be an occupant of an automobile accident by random chance in any arbitrary year would be 5487000/296000000 (or 98.1463% against). However, over the course of 80 years, random chance suggests 77.62% chance for the event to occur at least once during that time. The above data (2351000/5487000) shows there's a 57.15% chance against those involved in an accident and wearing a seat belt from being injured. So the risk to the any member of the population at large amounts to 1.853 * 42.85 (or 99.2% against). However, over the course of 80 years, random chance suggests 57.35% for that event to occur. And finally, the probability that, by chance, one will be injured in an automobile accident (while wearing a seat belt), and the injuries being fatal amounts to (11622/3191) * 42.85 * 1.853 (or 10723:1 against). However, over the course of 80 years, this becomes almost a 1% certainty.
Perhaps my statement of virtual certainty of an injurious accident during one's driving career was a bit over-zealous, in that the great likelyhood exists within one's lifetime. However, I rest on my original, and subsequent (this) posting that the preponderance of chance is precisely what I stated, and that furthermore, the likelyhood of injury (based on the statistics for unrestrained motor vehicle occupants) much greater. I'll concede that the statistics presented appear to show a higher incidence (compare incidence w/ prevalance) of injury, but what would the fatality statistics be if but for the restraints?