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To: raygun

Can you source these stats? Some are pretty obviously off the wall. I doubt anyone here can claim that ALL of their no dead relatives and friends had been involved in at least 1 injury accident.


214 posted on 08/13/2005 12:09:48 PM PDT by Dead Dog
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To: Dead Dog
Sir, "obviously off the wall" is something that can easily be refuted. Which specific statistics do you object to? Please allow me to, with respect to you major objection, respond. Your other contention I can not address, as I believe that the laws in existence are a result of a vindictive, retribution, hate organization (and who really can blame these people for their emotions?). I've wrestled with the issue for several years, and believe that its more "knee jerk" response (albeit pragmatic), rather than a solution that addresses the core of the problem. The core of the issue is that alchohol and other intoxicants have become a pivotal and fundamental part of our society. All of that was explained to me during my Alchohol Awareness programs that I was legally required to attend a few years ago.

The US Department of Transportation estimates that the typical driver will have a near automobile accident one to two times per month and all will be in a collision of some type on average every 6 years.   According to the National Safety Council (NSA), there are more than 12 million motor vehicle accidents annually that involve more than 20 million vehicles.  Of these accidents, about 6.4 million are nonfatal, over 2 million are injurious and about 4.3 million are property damage only.  The following charts are from the NHTSA:

Chart 6 Occupant Fatalities in 2002
By Age and Restraint Use, In Passenger Vehicles

Age Group Restrained Percent Restrained Unrestrained Percent Unrestrained Total Total Percent
0-4 274 59.6% 185 40.4% 459 100%
5-9 205 51.4% 195 48.6% 400 100%
10-15 350 37.7% 576 62.3% 926 100%
16-20 1,999 35.5% 3,626 64.5% 5,625 100%
21-24 1,199 32.6% 2,477 67.4% 3,676 100%
25-44 3,232 32.7% 6,656 67.3% 9,888 100%
45-64 2,947 46.8% 3,353 53.2% 6,300 100%
65-74 1,253 58.5% 887 41.5% 2,140 100%
75+ 1,983 63.9% 1,122 36.1% 3,105 100%
TOTAL 13,448 41.4% 19,071 58.6% 32,519 100%

Chart 7 Occupants Killed or Injured In 2002
By Injury Severity, In Passenger Vehicles

  Injury Severity
Age Group Killed Incapacitating* Non-
incapacitating
Possible Injury Injury Severity Unknown Total Injured Total
0-4 459 6,588 15,552 35,602 783 58,525 58,984
5-9 400 7,038 21,087 42,822 758 71,705 72,105
10-15 926 12,569 34,745 74,536 1,062 122,912 123,838
16-20 5,625 56,053 149,645 266,200 4,167 476,065 481,690
21-24 3,676 35,973 89,255 166,995 3,302 295,525 299,201
25-44 9,888 99,504 227,077 595,110 7,912 929,603 939,491
45-64 6,300 57,286 118,747 343,343 3,711 523,087 529,387
65-74 2,140 13,343 32,042 65,376 391 111,152 113,292
75+ 3,105 14,604 28,096 49,983 422 93,105 96,210
TOTAL 32,519 302,957 716,246 1,639,968 22,507 2,681,678 2,714,197

*An incapacitating injury is any injury, other than a fatal injury, that prevents the injured person from walking, driving, or normally continuing the activities the person was capable of performing before the injury occurred.

It should be noted that 4,563,000 cases were reported by emergency departments to the CDC classified as "autmobile injury" in 2000.

According to Federal Highway Administration statistics for 2000:

  Fatal Crash Occupant Statistics by Restraint Use
restraint use Survived Percent Killed  Percent Total Percent
yes 31,328 73% 11,622 27% 42,950 52.4%
no 13,985 44% 17,672 56% 31,657 38.6%
unknown 4,742 64% 2,616 36% 7,358 8.9%
TOTAL 50,055 60.3% 31910 39.6% 81965 100%

  Vehicle Occupant Statistics by Restraint Use 
restraint use Uninjured Percent Injured  Percent Total Percent
yes 2,114,000 47% 2,351,000 53% 4,465,000 81.4%
no 152,000 30% 359,000 70% 511,000 9.3%
unknown 311,000 61% 199,000 39% 511,000 9.3%
TOTAL 2,577,000 46% 25503559 54% 5487000 100%

Given that there are an estimated 296 million people in the U.S.A., according to the above statistics, the probability for any person in the U.S.A. to be an occupant of an automobile accident by random chance in any arbitrary year would be 5487000/296000000 (or 98.1463% against).  However, over the course of 80 years, random chance suggests 77.62% chance for the event to occur at least once during that time.  The above data (2351000/5487000) shows there's a 57.15% chance against those involved in an accident and wearing a seat belt from being injured.  So the risk to the any member of the population at large amounts to 1.853 * 42.85 (or 99.2% against).  However, over the course of 80 years, random chance suggests 57.35% for that event to occur.   And finally, the probability that, by chance, one will be injured in an automobile accident (while wearing a seat belt), and the injuries being fatal amounts to (11622/3191) * 42.85 * 1.853  (or 10723:1 against).  However, over the course of 80 years, this becomes almost a 1% certainty.

Perhaps my statement of virtual certainty of an injurious accident during one's driving career was a bit over-zealous, in that the great likelyhood exists within one's lifetime.  However, I rest on my original, and subsequent (this) posting that the preponderance of chance is precisely what I stated, and that furthermore, the likelyhood of injury (based on the statistics for unrestrained motor vehicle occupants) much greater.  I'll concede that the statistics presented appear to show a higher incidence (compare incidence w/ prevalance) of injury, but what would the fatality statistics be if but for the restraints?



288 posted on 08/14/2005 1:34:28 PM PDT by raygun
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