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To: remember
...I'm not as worried about the current 60 percent of GDP debt as I am about the fact that we are increasing it...

We may have different understandings of what's going on.  I checked public debt (from here) and gdp (from here) and calculated it (here) and I don't see a problem.   Sure, we're up from the dip that ended 9/11, but we're no where near the peak in '96.  What I got is that the economy recovered, and the debt % made a lower peak and is now tapering off.   I honestly can't see what you're worried about.

Even the long range projections you shared in post 314 has debt under control for a decade until the Social Security tax scam is no longer able to continue cheating the public.  Which is why phasing it out starting now is the only serious way to correct those projections. 

From where I see it, we're in good shape and getting better.   This runs against the Religion of Doom preached by the disciples of misery, but I can't find any way around this good news.   I don't even think the regime change everyone here seems to want can 'help' us.

316 posted on 08/12/2005 8:10:01 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama
We may have different understandings of what's going on. I checked public debt (from here) and gdp (from here) and calculated it (here) and I don't see a problem. Sure, we're up from the dip that ended 9/11, but we're no where near the peak in '96. What I got is that the economy recovered, and the debt % made a lower peak and is now tapering off. I honestly can't see what you're worried about.

Actually, I took a look at your sources and found a problem with several of your numbers. Following are your figures from your third link:

PUBLIC DEBT AS PERCENT OF GDP - EXPAT'S NUMBERS

       Public            % of
Year     Debt     GDP     GDP
----   ------  ------  ------
1993    4,411   6,657   66.3%
1994    4,693   7,072   66.4%
1995    4,974   7,398   67.2%
1996    5,225   7,817   66.8%
1997    5,413   8,304   65.2%
1998    5,526   8,747   63.2%
1999    5,656   9,268   61.0%
2000    5,674   9,817   57.8%
2001    5,807  10,101   57.5%
2002    6,228  10,481   59.4%
2003    6,783  10,736   63.2%
2004    7,123  11,107   64.1%
2005    7,880  12,376   63.7%

Looking at your first link, all of your debt numbers are correct except for 2004. You have 7,123 but your source has 7,379. Looking at Table 3A in your second link, it appears that your numbers for 2001 through 2004 are incorrect. I could not find the GDP numbers for 1993 through 2000 at that link but it is possible to check all of the annual numbers from 1993 through 2004 at this link. This source verifies your numbers for 1993 through 2000 and verifies the numbers from Table 3A for 2001 through 2004. In any case, the following table shows all of the corrected numbers, along with the corrected percentages of GDP:

PUBLIC DEBT AS PERCENT OF GDP - CORRECTED

       Public            % of
Year     Debt     GDP     GDP 
----   ------  ------  ------ 
1993    4,411   6,657    66.3 
1994    4,693   7,072    66.4 
1995    4,974   7,398    67.2 
1996    5,225   7,817    66.8 
1997    5,413   8,304    65.2 
1998    5,526   8,747    63.2 
1999    5,656   9,268    61.0 
2000    5,674   9,817    57.8 
2001    5,807  10,128*   57.3*
2002    6,228  10,470*   59.5*
2003    6,783  10,971*   61.8*
2004    7,379* 11,734*   62.9*
2005    7,880  12,376    63.7 

* corrected

By the way, the 2005 number is a little bit suspect since the debt number is for 8/10/05 and the GDP number is the annualized figure for the second quarter of 2005. The second quarter numbers tend to be slightly below the annual figures so your figure may be a decent rough estimate. Still, it isn't a precise measurement. In any case, the corrected numbers show that, as a percentage of GDP, the debt is continuing to rise through 2005.

318 posted on 08/13/2005 2:20:10 AM PDT by remember
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