What I am also trying to sort out is how much is new versus echo of earlier information.
1) Earlier UBL story (Iraq invitation to UBL by Zarqawi) was several reports, but all looked like "echoes" (all reading same jihadi chatter). No reputable source (yet) has reported it as an "official" threat (like the NYC-LA-Chicago tanker threat).
Interesting original specific AQ WMD 11/03 threat was NYC-LA-DC. (3 cities, 2 the same ones - - maybe because DC not as high-value until after Labor Day because everyone is gone in August - - that was why they deliberately waited in 2001 for everyone to come back from August recess)
2) Tanker threat seemed to have the current threat window (now to 9/19) not Ramadan.
3) Latest DEBKA assertion (that volume of encoded messages is unprecedented since pre-9/11) so far has no corroboration. I would imagine the "hair on fire" stories would leak in the next few days if it is true. I'm not sold on that just yet as, unlike pre-9/11, there are plenty of independent "watchers" who would probably notice if a surge of coded messages started to fly around.
European 30-day deadline expires (tomorrow?).
I'd see the threat as a continuum, starting now and peaking in Ramadan.
It is a global offensive, not theater-based or regional.
As you know, to understand the enemy you have to see the world through their eyes. To them, we are all part of a worldwide "Zionist-Crusader" conspiracy. The battle is to "liberate" Iraq, then Palestine (building on chaos of disengagement). So hitting the rear areas (Europe and America) of the "dual occupation" will (as they see it) lay the groundwork for a successful "Tet Offensive" in Iraq (which like in Vietnam they can lose in reality as long as they win in the battle of perceptions/expectations) that would (again, in their mind) lead to a regional upheaval (by taking the US down a few notches).
Spectacular attacks followed by a fairly organized offensive. The objective is to deal a crippling blow to national will (which has already turned to a large extent) which is our center of gravity. I'm not saying it will succeed, but that's my estimate of their strategy. They are betting the national reaction will not be post-9/11, but post-Madrid.
They are going for "shock and awe".