Between 2002 and 2004, we lost two seats in by-elections in deep red districts, one in ND and the other in KY. (By-elections are always tricky things, where the party out of power has a chance to do "surprisingly" well.) In 2004, we came close, but failed to get those two seats back. The usual rule is that Congress-entities are hard to defeat after they have been re-elected at least once. Does mean that these two seats, which should be ours, are lost for the foreseeable future?
Also, in MD, do we have a chance to pick-up the southeastern Baltimore suburban district being vacated by Congressman Cardin, who is running for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator? I am also curious about the northeastern suburban seat that we lost when then Congressman Erlich ran for Governor. What do you see for us in Maryland, especially if we have two strong Republican candidates at the top, running for Governor and Senator?
I don't know about the Kentucky seat you refer to, but I will assume you meant South Dakota for the other one. There, the Dem, Stephanie Herseth will probably be safe as long as she doesn't make too many liberal votes.
She ran as a conservative on most issues, and even voted for the Federal Marriage Amendment, so it will be hard to gain anything on social and cultural issues. She also hails from an established SD political family, which is how she got the nomination in the first place.
She will not be content with a House seat for long though. Count on her to run for governor, or Senate against Thune in 2008, or for Johnson's seat should he retire. Until then, that seat is probably safe for her.