Bush carried the district by only .65%, Strickland will be on the top of the ticket, and Schmidt performed very badly in counties that are similar to many in Strickland's district. Unless the quality of the GOP candidate is far superior to the Dem, the Dem has a clear edge. Ohio does not look like it will be a good place for the GOP in 2006.
I agree with all that. But I still think you can't give the Dems better than a 60 to 70 percent chance of keeping the seat at this point (or at least I can't since I don't know who is running). You think we can convince Taft to switch parties?
It will be a damn shame if Blackwell's fortunes are torpedoed by Taft and that coin investor scandal.
I don't really know how much having the governor's office directly helps carry states for Presidential elections, as it didn't help Bush in Penn, Michigan, or Wisconsin in 2000, but a Strickland victory would give the Dems tremendous confidence and momentum on Ohio, and that should be feared.