Posted on 08/05/2005 5:35:53 AM PDT by crushkerry
"I believe that the Clintons agree with that assessment and are looking at ways around it."
Hillary knows she needs to sneak into the Oval. No way does she win a direct election after the public "gets" her in the primaries. She knows this, she's not stupid.
Remember the summer scare when it looked like the "draft Hillary" movement was gaining momentum? Bush/Cheney would have been forced to tack into the wind to confront her, with little time before November. Keep the op research open on her, look for her to pull something similar for 08 to avoid the glaring lights of the primaries.
They have that in Nevada. I don't remember what the consequences are if None wins.
The author posits that the partisan split will be a repeat of 2004. I tend to doubt that. There will be a six year itch. I suspect the GOP will lose 5-10 seats in the House. That of course is subject to change as time passes.
At this point in time I think you're probably right.
They have that?
Since the National election cannot be redone and the electors must be seated by a certain time, does the state legislature then appoint electors?
After all, there is nothing to mandate that they be elected.
But I believe it is mandated that electors be seated.
What? There are only 3 Republican seats up for grabs. - The rest are held by Dems.
I think money spent smartly will win control.
Something to consider is that the statewide Republican party is in such disarray thanks to that idiot Taft that I am afraid it hurt Schmidt and is going to her the rest of the GOP canidates as well.
Who is the incumbent in the district they are identifying as up for grabs?
That is what the author says. I think the author is wrong.
Those three seats are certainly the most vulnerable. But GOP held seats in play include another one in Penn, 2 in Conn., 1 in California, a second one in Colorado, the Delay seat, the Northrup seat in Louisville, the Hyde seat in Illinois, the Heather Wilson seat in New Mexico, maybe the seat the GOP won from Baron Hill in Indiana (I think Hill is running again, or the Chicola seat in the South Bend area), maybe the Taylor seat in North Carolina, the Young and/or Shaw seat in Florida if either retires, maybe the Kennedy seat in Minnesota that he is vacating to run for the Senate. There may be others, but those come to mind off the top.
I don't see the GOP picking up ANY Dem seats, but the Bean seat, the Marshall seat in Georgia, and the Edwards seat might be in play. My guess is that the Dems will hold all three, with the Bean seat the most imponderable at present. The author's list of vulnerable Dem seats is ludicrous. Positing as he does that the seat Strickland is vacating in Ohio to run for governor, CO-3 and LA-03, are in play is well, wishful thinking. The Dems will hold all three easily.
Damn straight I'm right. As I said elsewhere, the position of RNC cheerleader was already filled many times over when I joined this site. I had to find a different niche. :)
LOL, change your handle to RoilingtheWaters.
It may only be for state (and local?) races. But they have it.
Got that, bill1952?
Why are you so certain about Strickland's seat?
Bush carried the district by only .65%, Strickland will be on the top of the ticket, and Schmidt performed very badly in counties that are similar to many in Strickland's district. Unless the quality of the GOP candidate is far superior to the Dem, the Dem has a clear edge. Ohio does not look like it will be a good place for the GOP in 2006.
I agree with all that. But I still think you can't give the Dems better than a 60 to 70 percent chance of keeping the seat at this point (or at least I can't since I don't know who is running). You think we can convince Taft to switch parties?
I don't know about the Kentucky seat you refer to, but I will assume you meant South Dakota for the other one. There, the Dem, Stephanie Herseth will probably be safe as long as she doesn't make too many liberal votes.
She ran as a conservative on most issues, and even voted for the Federal Marriage Amendment, so it will be hard to gain anything on social and cultural issues. She also hails from an established SD political family, which is how she got the nomination in the first place.
She will not be content with a House seat for long though. Count on her to run for governor, or Senate against Thune in 2008, or for Johnson's seat should he retire. Until then, that seat is probably safe for her.
It will be a damn shame if Blackwell's fortunes are torpedoed by Taft and that coin investor scandal.
I don't really know how much having the governor's office directly helps carry states for Presidential elections, as it didn't help Bush in Penn, Michigan, or Wisconsin in 2000, but a Strickland victory would give the Dems tremendous confidence and momentum on Ohio, and that should be feared.
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