"Those seats are totally safe for the incumbents, just as they were in 2004, and for Boucher, since rocks cooled."
The same was said about Barron Hill's 9th CD in Indiana, and he lost in 2004. And it was also said about a plethora of districts in the South and Midwest that switched to the GOP from 1992 to 2002. Sure, incumbents are much more difficult to defeat, but all it takes is one good GOP candidate who can convince voters that the Dem incumbent's votes are hurting Bush's agenda and we've got ourselves a race.
Bush didn't get 60% of the vote in the VA-09 because its voters prefer pro-abortion socialists who are in the closet, and I think it's short-sighted to say that just because Boucher has won fairly easily in the past means that he will win easily in 2006, especially with Kilgore boosting conservative turnout in SW VA.
As for Holden, he only won 51%-49% against George Gekas in 2002, who was out of touch with the district (especially with voters in the city of Harrisburg), never really introduced himself in Schuylkill (sp?) County, and seemed to be old and tired (being caught asleep in his car at the Capitol parking garage in the middle of the day didn't help him any). In 2004, Holden faced Joe Paterno's fat son, who won a split primary and never really got his campaign off the ground. Now, Holden is a conservative Democrat, and the district is not as Republican as Boucher's (it gave Bush 56% in 2004), but Lebanon and Dauphin Counties are rock-ribbed Republican (save for black-majority Harrisburg) and a top-tier GOP candidate would have an excellent chance in 2006, especially if Rendell's ratings keep dropping.
You are being way too pessimistic here. I know that's what you do best, and I appreciate having a "Devil's advocate" on the FR election threads to keep us honest, but if your views were correct we would have never retaken the Senate in 2002 or added 4 net Republican Senators in 2006.
Baron Hill never had the lock on his district that Boucher has. My track record in predicting house contests is pretty good. In 2004, I think I predicted the GOP would pick up 2 seats. The pickup of 4 was a surprise, because the GOP won all of the close ones, and swept the board except for Colorado. I try to call them as I see them, and be neither unduly optimistic or pessimistic. But you are right, I don't do the cheerleader thing. That position is already oversubscribed on FR. :)