Oh, and you don't think that a freshman liberal Democrat in a Chicago metro area district that gave Bush 57% in 2004 is a goner, yet you think that liberal Republicans who have survived tough election after tough election in Connecticut districts where Kerry couldn't get 57% are headed to defeat? Haven't you noticed that New Englanders are more likely to vote for Republicans to the House than for President, and that suburban Chicagoans are also more willing to vote for Republicans for the House than for the presidency? I can understand if you were unsure about our chances of winning in Southern district, or rural Midwestern district, in which Bush got 57%, but in a suburban Chicago district where he got 57%?
Bean is an incumbent, and 2006 will not be a good GOP year. The natives are restless in large metro areas. There isn't much that pleases them about Bush, at the margin. It depends on the GOP candidate obviously. Advantage until I know more, Bean.
The Conn Pubbies had narrow margins in a rather good GOP year in 2004, with Shays suffering a percipitous decline in his margin. 2006 will be less friendly. I suspect both will go, as it stands now, but Shays has higher odds of biting the dust.