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To: xzins
"But if the odds were 2.5 X 10^150 then in 250,000,000,000 weeks you wouldn't even have begun. "

You still seem to be having trouble.

If it is from a fair draw each tickets has the same probability of winning. If there are enough tickets sold to cover all possibilities, one ticket will win. In this case the probability of someone winning is one. If you select a specific ticket beforehand which you desire to win, the odds are definitely against it winning. I think this is where your misunderstanding occurs. There is a difference when considering a specific pre-chosen ticket and any non-specific ticket from the group.

The calculations I've seen of abiogenesis make a similar mistake. One specific DNA sequence, RNA sequence, Amino acid sequence, or whatever is chosen as the desired outcome. When this is done the probability is unbelievably small. If however you state beforehand that any one of the possible sequences will satisfy the desired outcome, the probability becomes one. When applied to reality, we know that not all sequences will satisfy the desired outcome, in this case support life. We would be silly to suppose that only one sequence could, especially if you consider DNA and RNA since we find so many different sequences in living organisms. We know from this that there must be a number, or number range, of possible sequences that will satisfy the desired outcome.

The problem is we do not know what that desired outcome should be. This makes the entire calculation irrelevant. Sorry for yelling, but I wanted you to focus on that one phrase and understand what it means.

1,459 posted on 08/03/2005 5:43:20 PM PDT by b_sharp (Science adjusts theories to fit evidence, creationism distorts evidence to fit the Bible.)
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To: b_sharp

You are asking that one ticket "abiogenesis" hit the jackpot.

You are also hoping that your ticket wins. That's 1 out of total possible combination of numbers.


1,461 posted on 08/03/2005 5:46:53 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It!)
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