Posted on 08/01/2005 10:34:42 AM PDT by Jomini
Oil prices climbed above $61 a barrel to a three-week high on Monday as the death of Saudi Arabia's King Fahd, a spate of U.S. refinery outages and tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions rattled the market.
U.S. light, sweet crude rose $1.03 to $61.60 a barrel. The price has climbed 40 percent this year and is approaching the record high of $62.10 hit on July 7.
"It's this combination that serves as a reminder of the market's vulnerability," said a senior energy analyst.
King Fahd died on Monday and will be succeeded by Crown Prince Abdullah, his half-brother who has been the de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia since Fahd suffered a stroke in 1995.
Abdullah will adhere to Saudi Arabia's long-standing oil policy aimed at ensuring global markets are well supplied, the kingdom's next U.S. ambassador Prince Turki al-Faisal said.
But analysts said markets were jittery over longer term Saudi policy, noting that the new king and Crown Prince were both octogenarians.
"It's this succession struggle and the possible related instability that's the actual concern," one trader said.
REFINERIES UNDER STRAIN
A spate of refinery problems in the United States resurrected concerns about meeting strong fuel demand.
Exxon Mobil added to the anxiety at the weekend as it shut down its 235,000 barrels per day Joliet refinery in Illinois, according to trade sources.
BP also shut down a gasoline-producing unit at the weekend at its giant Texas City refinery -- the third-largest in the U.S. and source of 3 percent of its gasoline -- for maintenance, a regulatory filing showed "Steadily declining inventory levels ahead of the gasoline peak demand season mean that this market has been looking increasingly tight," said Barclays Capital in a report.
Although stockpiles of most fuels are relatively healthy for this time of year, traders fear refiners may be hard-pressed to satisfy rising summer motor fuel consumption while also stocking up enough distillate supplies to meet peak winter consumption.
IRAN TENSIONS
Adding to market nerves, OPEC's second biggest oil producer Iran said it would break U.N. seals on a nuclear plant and resume work that the West suspects could help it build an atom bomb.
The move was in defiance of EU warnings and could see Iran's case sent to the United Nations Security Council for possible sanctions.
Since someone, possibly you, pointed that out when the chicken little articles flooded the MSM a month ago on their regular cycle, it is as clear as a fnord when they bring up refinery capacity as an answer to everything. Why do they do that?
That would affect the price of gasoline, or the output of the refinery. Not the feedstock crude that goes INTO the refinery - if refineries are buying less oil because of a couple of shutdowns, demand goes down and prices of crude should FALL.
Look at post #18 - it apparently tricks some folks who don't think of the two-step it takes to get gasoline to gas stations. Refinery capacity down means less gasoline, price of gas goes up - but the price of crude should go down on the same news.
Maybe daddy Bush should get down on his prayer rug and offer prayers or something to hold down oil speculation.
I thought I read that the US enonomy was doing fine with $60 crude...
Crude rising on King Fahd's death is absurd. He was worse off than Terry Schiavo. Abdullah has ruled for years.
People are going to be real annoyed when they can't afford gasoline and doughnuts at the convenience store anymore. At least if they choose doughnuts they will be annoyed at home instead of out in public.
No, and we filled our cars up on Saturday at $2.05 a gallon. It has been as low as $l.99 a gallon at some places.
Oh, on a nationwide basis, that's absolutely true. The supply disruptions I described are both local and temporary.
I definitely believe that the price run ups now are largely the result of speculators preying on fears of shortages (that won't materialize).
The point that I meant (but failed) to make in my earlier post is that we as a nation are unprepared for any *real* supply disruptions.
I really would like to see the U.S. move more aggressively to reduce our dependence on foreign energy sources.
Based upon the rise in price of crude, it looks like your assumption is invalid. The refineries are not buying less but are ensuring supply in the belief that future prices will continue rising.
Either that, or the stated reason has no relevance to the price increase.
If refineries are buying more oil to meet future demand, then the article should state that. But saying that outages at refineries would increase the price of crude oil is absurd on its face. In addition, the refineries have limited storage capacity, so any refinery experiencing an outage can't just stock up on oil while it is down - sooner or later, the tanks are full.
Increase the price of gas, yes. Increase the price of oil, no.
The commodities speculators will use any excuse to bid up oil prices. If I were the President, I'd announce this week that we are in war time and will start rationing gas to x-number of gallons per driver starting Sept. 1. It would be so simple to do with computers keeping a tally on your driver's license number. Talk about a market crash! I'd be delighted to have played a part in the war on terror by putting the Saudis and the oil speculators out of business.
Not only would the market crash...so would the US economy (what do you think trucks run on?)
They must be running low on half brothers and on years during which this generation can pass along the crown. Who takes over when the last of this generation dies? There must be hundreds of possible claimants and that is asking for a very messy succession.
About as real as any other reason.
Well I can't speak for the quality of the journalism here. After all it is Rooters.
I would blame the Democrats in Congress who are always out in front of the cameras distracting us away from the real bedrock issues with this Gitmo, Bolton, Plame crap.
Which means the cycle should already be "priced into" the cost of oil--we shouldn't see spikes just because some refinery is performing routine maintenance.
I don't find paying $2.39 acceptable.
He hasn't lifted a finger to try reducing the price- to the best of my knowledge (please don't cite ANWR,1 mil./bbl per day is not even 5%).
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