Bush makes progress

FT ^ | 7/30/05 | oped

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

As Congress wraps up for the summer recess, President George W. Bush can look back with satisfaction at a month in which he and his allies regained the political initiative and scored some notable legislative successes. Weighed against the big domestic story of the year - the president's failure to make headway on reform of social security - these achievements come up light. But they show it is far too soon to write off Mr Bush's second term or cast him as a lame duck president.

The impasse over social security and the failure to win confirmation of John Bolton as ambassador to the United Nations illustrate the limits to Mr Bush's power. Yet passage of the Central America Free Trade Agreement and the energy bill as well as the nomination of Judge John Roberts to the Supreme Court demonstrate his continuing ability to make progress.

Cafta, the energy bill and the tort reform passed earlier in the year were all measures Mr Bush wanted to implement before the last election. He has now tidied up the unfinished domestic business of the first term. What he has not yet done is make headway on his second-term agenda.

Comprehensive social security reform looks dead in the water. Yet some form of retirement legislation remains possible. When Congress resumes in September, battle will be joined on a broader front, potentially extending to tax reform, immigration and more extensive tort reform.

The battles will be shaped by three factors. First, the main check to Republican ambitions is the Senate, where the balance of power is held by independently minded centrists from both parties. Second, the lack of an obvious heir-apparent to Mr Bush is encouraging hopefuls to stake out political turf, exposing fissures in the Republican movement and making it difficult to impose party discipline.

Third, the Republicans have chosen to use their majority with an aggression more typical of parliamentary systems, while a Democratic party short on ideas falls back on pure opposition. The Republican strategy has advantages and worked on Cafta, but makes it difficult to achieve reforms of programmes such as social security.

While Mr Bush has the power of initiative, he is not fully in control of the agenda. The inquiry into the leaking of the identity of CIA agent Valerie Plume - set to conclude in October - could end in the indictment of one of Mr Bush's senior aides. That would transform the issue from a Beltway obsession to a national political disaster.

And then there is Iraq. While other issues come and go, Iraq never goes away. It remains the subject that, alongside appointments to the Supreme Court, will define the second term and Mr Bush's legacy.

Political bickering and daily murderous suicide bombings have eaten away at the sense of progress evoked by Iraq's election in January. In recent days, officials have lowered the bar for a first troop drawdown to next spring, ahead of the 2006 mid-term elections, hinting it could go ahead even if the insurgency continues.

Mr Bush does not need to bring all the boys home next year. But he does need to show that a process is under way that will lead to this conclusion. However, this relies on the ability of Iraq's rival ethnic groups to agree a constitution on time, and on efforts to build up the capacity of Iraqi armed forces. On the single most important issue, Mr Bush's presidency remains hostage to events on the ground.

[ExcursionGuy84]

I highly Doubt that CAFTA is going to be even a shred of Slightly beneficial to us Americans.