Posted on 08/01/2005 6:00:16 AM PDT by Irontank
WITH nearly six million Mexicans living illegally in the United States, some Americans, particularly those in border states, are greatly worried about the costs of illegal immigration and have demanded that more be done to stem it. Modern-day "minutemen" patrol the border. Voters pass measures limiting the rights of illegal immigrants, and senators debate legislation to establish guest-worker programs.
....
But chances are that there will be a substantial decrease in illegal immigration from Mexico in the next 20 years, and it won't be because of civilian border patrols, laws being passed, pronouncements by politicians, or as some would like, "building a wall on the border." Instead, the cause will be demographic trends within Mexico itself, trends that have been largely ignored in the debate over immigration.
Mexico's population growth rate has dropped by more than 50 percent during the last five decades, according to the United Nations. The annual growth rate has declined from approximately 3 percent in 1960 to 1.3 percent today. And it is expected to continue to fall in the first decades of the 21st century; by 2050, the United Nations predicts, the rate will be negative. The fertility rate in Mexico has had a corresponding significant drop, from 6.9 children per woman in 1955 to 2.5 today.
The population growth rate of Mexico is now only slightly higher than that of Canada, where recent data shows it to be 1 percent. Twenty-five years ago, Mexico had a growth rate more than twice that of Canada.
So what is the significance of all this? The aging of the population in Mexico coupled with Mexico's economic expansion mean that jobs in Mexico will be more plentiful, thereby prompting fewer young people to come to the United States in search of work.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Yeccch.
The New York Times telling us rubes that there's nothing to see here concerning Hispanics, now move along.
I expect the reason for the falling birth rate is that so many of Mexico's young people are living and having babies in the US. Of course that's going to cut down on the birth rate. But all those babies are being had in the US. So I expect the number of Mexicans crossing the border may decrease, but it will just be replaced with Mexican babies being born in the US.
"The fertility rate in Mexico has had a corresponding significant drop, from 6.9 children per woman in 1955 to 2.5 today."
Holy Shiite!
6.9 kids? That's a lot of sex and not a lot of lawn cutting.
You may be right in your skepticism...I googled Matthew Dowd and he was a Bush/Cheney advisor who is best known for leading the effort to "woo Hispanic voters" to the Republicrat...I mean Republican party
Hmmm, didn't know that about Dowd. Now I'm even more convinced...
I'd feel better if this wasn't a Times piece. I am always skeptical of them.
You would be right. Vdare (banned from FR) published a well researched piece on this a few months ago and just a few days ago on FR we were discussing a thread about how a ridiculously high percentage of US births were to Hispanic immigrants. I don't think the thread identified them by illegal status but the majority of them are illegals.
Unfortunately, Hispanics as a group do a poor job of educating their children. Here is a disturbing study which shows that even by the third generation, children of Hispanics are 3 times more likely to be high school dropouts as children of immigrants from other racial groups/ethnicities/cultures (Table 5 on Page 10). It does not bode well for our future. Check my tagline!
Mexico of course has potential, but that is what is said about the Cubs every year, and they lose. Mexico is barely ahead of Islam in the evolution towards modernity. If you succeed in Mexico you do so in spite of Mexico and its "culture." Its a culture of ego-centrism and primitivism stuck in its past and hateful of success. Worse there are hacks in America that wish to woo the "Hispanic" whatever and there are hacks actually marketing something called "Hispanic culture" when in a decent society they should be revulsed by most of what passes for Hispanic this or that. We truly our governed my moral weaklings and craven opportunists.
Raw birth-rate figures are meaningless and deceptive until and unless one factors in corresponding infant- and child-mortality rates.
"If you succeed in Mexico you do so in spite of Mexico and its "culture.""
You succede in Mexico because you are pure blood Spanish!
Mexicans aren't allowed to succede.
You are correct. Further, I am beginning to think that allowing illegal immigration unabated is due to some kind of deal between our govt. and the Mex. govt. that involves any or all of the following: (these are my hypotheses, not my justifications--I'm all for stemming the tide of illegals and deporting all illegals immediately, but I'm trying to get inside the heads of the politicians).
1. allowing Vicente Fox and the Mexican "ruling class" to do some kind of ethnic cleansing there (our ambassador to Mexico and friend of Bush Tony Garza just married the heiress to the Modelo Negra beer fortune, btw)
2. providing a subsidy (in the form of cheap labor) to farmers in the U.S. with a wink and a nod since the world trade organization is pressing the U.S. to do away with subsidies; the subsidies are not just to keep the farmers happy but to keep food prices low (don't want another French revolution).
3. preventing a revolution in Mexico similar to what happened in Cuba. Che Guevera is a folk hero in the Mexican slums, and Americans don't want having communism right next door
4. misguided, misdirected pandering to Hispanic voters who they think are voting based on this issue (they're actually pandering to a vocal minority vis-a-vis "La Raza" and LULAC, and not "mainstream" Hispanic voters).
PING
I think your comments are right on.
'Americans don't want having communism right next door"
They have had it for years but don't know it.
The PRI is basicly communist without attaching the name.
I was in La Paz in the 70s and couldn't get a flight home because all reservations had been canceled to accomadate the PRI convention reps. It was really pretty scarry with the PRI reps running around town waving MAO's little red book.
The government runs like communism where 51% or more of all basic industries are owned by the government and production and commerce is controled by supply and/or restrictions. All basic imports are controled as to what and who can import and nothing, including people, move in Mexico without Mexico City knowing about it.
The Fox in sheep's clothing, as it were?
I've had a lot of dealings in Mexico in the last 50 years including legally flying seafood out of there and have had a lot of contact with the ruling class (pure blood spanish) and the americans concept of what goes on in Mexico and how it is run is 180 degrees from the truth.
Mexico is a communist country without the offical title.
Yes, too many Americans who have a little exposure to Mexico City do have a wrong impression. I've had the opportunity, through business, to travel to the tiny towns of Mexico (usually ruled by one Spanish or even Irish/Spanish or German/Spanish family) and outlying medium-to-small cities of Mexico, and they are nothing like the "public face" of Mexico City. A simple superficial look at the Mestizo faces of "mainstream" Mexico City and then a look at the either Indian or Spanish and very few if any Mestizo faces in the other towns/cities tells you all you need to know, and that's before doing any business.
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