[thefactor]

well, good thing i am part of a law inforcement agency that is trained by the department of homeland security in these matters. wouldn't want to be full of conjecture...

[Man50D]

well, good thing i am part of a law inforcement agency that is trained by the department of homeland security in these matters. wouldn't want to be full of conjecture...

In that case I trust your opinion since you probably know more than most. There are people who make general statements based on only assumptions. Consequently I have a healthy dose of skepticism and that's why I asked the questions. Thanks for the information.

[Iris7]

I am fairly up to speed on the DHS position on the likelihood of various nuclear devices being encountered. The devices considered likely are those that are easily constructed by a small group of people, garage stuff, nearly. "Dirty bombs" are a very light industry sort of thing.

Since "dirty bombs" are the increasingly official prediction of a huge bureaucracy then perhaps "dirty bombs" are the least likely event. Looks to me that "dirty bombs" are no longer probable.

Many operations could make an equivalent to the US MK7 60 kt bomb of the early fifties. This machine could be delivered by a light freight aircraft, like a DC-3.

From my "Effects of Nuclear Weapons" 1977, U.S.Army, pamphlet 50-3, 653 pages, (the latest data released to the public), looking at the effects of 60 kilotons, I see that the old MK7 air burst would deliver a ten psi overpressure at just over a mile radius from the burst. Even ten seconds after the explosion pressure waves would average one pound per square inch. An exposed human will achieve a velocity at one mile of about 70 feet per second, about 48 miles per hour. The wind will blow this man off his feet and then over the ground at nearly fifty miles per hour, scraping along the concrete, hitting parked cars, etc. Cars are air born in such conditions. The wind is also red hot. The area is almost completely rubble.

At 2.4 mile radius over 50% of those killed would be killed by radiological effects. At a three mile radius exposed skin will receive second degree burns. At a six mile radius the expectable total death and serious injury rate is about one in three of those within the twelve mile diameter circle.

I don't think that their is much interest in "dirty bombs" amongst the "al Queda" types. I think what I am describing is what they are working toward. They have to strike the USA in some meaningful way now instead of a totally symbolic target (like the World Trade Center). Anything less will result in merely more hostile Islamic governments, which obviously "al Queda" wishes to prevent.