Bound by a common cause (Russia and China)

The Japan Times ^ | Aug. 1, 2005 | DAVID WALL

[Tailgunner Joe]

LONDON -- When Chinese President Hu Jintao was in Moscow in early July, he sought to strengthen the "strategic partnership" between China and Russia that his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed in Moscow four years ago. The July 2001 "friendship treaty" was something of an empty box, offering little more that a call for a "just and rational new (multipolar) international order" and a complaint against U.S. plans and missile-defense systems. Hu and Putin have now tried to fill the 2001 empty box by signing three communiques and issuing a joint statement on "A New 21st Century World Order."

The three communiques and joint statement cover a lot of ground. One communique includes the usual pledge to strengthen trade and investment links, joint exploration for oil and gas -- including pipeline construction -- and calls for introducing a new vigor into "bilateral relations in politics, economy, science and culture."

The second communique, on regional and international issues, covers cooperation against terrorism, an accord on achieving a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, an agreement that U.N. reform should wait until a plan has consensus, and recognition that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), once known as the Shanghai Five, has "become and important factor in establishing a just and rational new international political and economic order."

It is the third communique that does the most to fill what was the empty strategic partnership box. Following settlement of remaining long-standing border disputes in 2004, the two countries have now committed themselves to enhanced military cooperation and exchanges, beginning with large-scale joint military exercises later this year. They aim to improve the fighting capability of both their forces "to deal with new challenges and threats."

Russia also put on record its support for China's policy on Taiwan; and China, its "staunch" support for Russia's efforts to fight separatism and terrorism that threaten national sovereignty.

The communiques represent a strengthening in the military alliance between the two countries, an alliance aimed not only at suppressing the "three forces of extremism, terrorism and separatism," but also at moving toward a multipolar world that balances the hegemonic tendencies of the United States.

China is Russia's main customer for fighter planes, missiles, submarines and destroyers -- all aimed at balancing the power of the U.S. in East Asia. Russia helps China get around the U.S. and EU embargoes on arms sales to China.

One expression of the newly strengthened alliance between the two powers is their growing support for SCO, which in addition to themselves comprises Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as members.

Hu and Putin both went to the SCO summit meeting this month in Kazakstan -- after their Moscow meeting -- and were instrumental in getting Iran and India (at Russia's insistence) and Pakistan (at China's insistence) admitted as observers. Hu went to Kazakstan ahead of Putin and signed a "strategic partnership" with President Nursultan Nazarbayev before the meeting started. China is investing heavily in developing oil and gas fields in the country and is building a pipeline to connect with its own pipeline this year.

Russia and China are strong supporters of the repressive regimes in the four former colonies of Russia that make up the rest of the SCO membership. Hu and Putin both congratulated President Islam Karimov on his brutal suppression of recent demonstrations in Uzbekistan.

Both Russia and China are hoping that SCO will develop a military component aimed not only at suppressing the "three forces" but also at balancing the growing U.S. presence and influence in Central Asia. The Americans currently have military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and agreements to use military airports in the two other 'Stans.

The granting of SCO observer status to Iran, India and Pakistan is an interesting geopolitical move.

It is easy to see why Russia wants Iran and India to be brought into SCO. Iran gives Russia an important foothold in the Mideast; and India was described by Putin in his inaugural speech last year as one of Russia's four strategic partners -- along with China, Japan and the U.S. India has long been a supporter and a client of Russia and has been a reliable market for Russian arms.

China has also welcomed India as an SCO observer -- Hu personally greeted Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh in the Kazak capital ahead of the SCO summit, saying he hoped SCO would serve as a "new platform for strengthening bilateral cooperation (between China) and India."

China and Russia are both keen to neutralize moves by the U.S. to develop its new strategic partnership with India based on the 10-year "strategic framework on defense." Some see that framework as an attempt by the U.S. to draw India into a China-containment policy, a role that the Indian prime minister has said he does not intend for India to play.

The final communique of the SCO meeting in Kazakstan said it was time for the U.S. to pull its troops out of Central Asia. No timetable was set, but it was suggested that 18 months might be a reasonable period for withdrawal. This SCO meeting was the first at which observers from India, Pakistan and Iran were present. They made no attempt to dissociate themselves from the communique.

As soon as Uzbekistan's president returned to Tashkent after the SCO meeting, his government issued a statement complaining about the activities of the Americans at the air base they are using and reiterating the SCO statement that it was time for them to go.

In his first speech as the new president of Kyrgyzstan, Kurmanbek Bakiev added his voice to the call for the Americans to pull out of Central Asia, although after subsequent talks with Washington, he said they could stay for the duration of operations in Afghanistan.

Despite the developments in Sino-Indian ties, Pakistan remains China's most important military partner. While China recently recognized India's borders as including Sikkim, it has not agreed to return the Aksai Chin region of Indian Kashmir that China annexed after Pakistani and Chinese troops occupied it in the 1962 Sino-Indian war. China insisted that Pakistan be invited to become an SCO observer to balance Russia's invitation to India.

Does all this represent a definite move toward the new "just and rational new (multipolar) international order" that Russia and China are calling for? Will these new alliances and forms of cooperation among the Asian countries and Russia balance, or more than balance, the growing roles of the U.S. in East, South and Central Asia? It is too soon to say as a lot of dust has yet to settle.

After the SCO communique, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the U.S. had no intention of pulling its troops out of Central Asia.

Whatever the U.S. thinks, it has become clear that the Russia-China alliance has moved to a higher level and that, together, they have become a force to be reckoned with in global affairs. It has also become clear that India has become a major player, and that Pakistan and Japan are now only bit players.

The direction in which the international order now moves will be determined by the U.S., China, India and maybe Russia. We will have to wait and see whether the direction in which they move is toward a more just and rational international order.

[NordP]

What an enlightening article. Thanks for posting it.

Did anyone else see the 40+ minute speech PM Singh of India made in front of our entire Congress a week or so ago? It was marvelous and filled with love for the U.S. and Democracy. It's all starting to make sense now. I surely hope that PM Singh meant all he said. It was music to my ears.... Now that I read this; however, I am beginning to understand that India may only want a place at the table, and to read anything more into his words should be left to the "cautiously optimistic" category.

[Wiz]

ping

[familyop]

BTTT! ...good, comprehensive piece, TJ.