[Ken H]

Here's what your source says about its own survey:

"Cautious evaluation of this data is necessary because the NHSDA cannot accurately measure rare or stigmatized drug use, relying as it does on self-reporting and on people residing in households. In alternate research, the number of hardcore* users of heroin in 1998 was estimated to be 980,000,"

"Estimates of heroin use from the NHSDA are considered very conservative due to the probable underreporting and undercoverage of the population of heroin users."

________________________________________

Drug Czar Barry McCaffrey, Oct 4, 2000:

"For example, numbers like heroin addiction. You can find numbers that go from 255,000 up to the one I'm currently using, 980,000, if I remember the last time we updated it, and those are all valid scientific studies."

--http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/drugs/symposium/panelmccaffrey.html

So, the government says its own household survey numbers are not reliable, and both the USDOJ and the Drug Czar say there are 980,000 heroin addicts.

The DOJ also says there are 3.6 million hardcore users who spend $36 billion/year on cocaine. That's $10,000/year per hardcore user. I suppose you're going to maintain that is not addiction?

Time to face the facts, the WOD is a failed social experiment.

[robertpaulsen]

"The DOJ also says there are 3.6 million hardcore users who spend $36 billion/year on cocaine."

This explains the difference. Your source adds the NHSDA number (close to my estimate of 600K addicts) to this DUF guesstimate.

"This less-stable population of hardcore drug users is, however, well-represented in data collected by the Drug Use Forecasting (DUF) program, which questions a sample of arrestees in 24 central city jails and lockups about their drug use. In this analysis, hardcore users in the DUF data are defined as those who admitted using cocaine or heroin on more than 10 days during the month before being arrested."

This "data" is then extrapolated to overall use. From the report: "For example, if hardcore users account for 2 million arrests per year, and if hardcore users are arrested an average of 0.5 times per year, then there must be 2 million divided by 0.5, or 4 million, hardcore users in the nation." What a joke.

The NHSDA measures drug use among the American household population age 12 and older, as well as among people living in group quarters and the homeless. The DUF supposedly picks up all others, AND "hardcore users in the DUF data are defined as those who admitted using cocaine or heroin on more than 10 days during the month before being arrested".

OK. So these losers, not part of a household, not part of a group shelter, not homeless (lord, what are they?), strung out on drugs over one-third of the time, are only arrested once every two years???

Once a week, I'd believe -- petty theft, vagrancy, public intoxication, prostitution, whatever. Once every two years is beyond credulity.