Posted on 07/28/2005 12:24:00 PM PDT by Paul Ross
Navy officer warns of Chinese subs
BUILDUP: China is boosting its submarine force with the eventual aim of preventing the US from coming to the aid of Taiwan, a retired US military official said
By Charles Snyder
STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON
Wednesday, Jul 27, 2005,Page 3
A former senior US naval officer warned Monday that within 20 years, China will have the ability to wreak havoc on US naval forces going to Taiwan's defense against a Chinese attack.
Such a defeat of the US navy by a Chinese force "will ruin America as we know it today," Vice Admiral Al Konetzni said. He was testifying before a hearing of a commission formed by the Pentagon earlier this year to probe plans for closing dozens of US military bases in a bid to save money.
Konetzni was testifying at a hearing in Boston on plans to close the Naval Submarine Base in New London, Connecticut, one of 33 major bases slated for closure under the Defense Department's base closure initiative.
He made his comments less than a week after the Pentagon released its annual report to Congress on China's military buildup, which warned of a grave threat to Taiwan stemming from China's military modernization and of its submarine force expansion.
A key role for Chinese submarines, the report and US military experts note, would be to prevent the US from coming close enough to aid Taiwan by essentially closing off the Taiwan Strait to US vessels and troops, allowing China to complete its attack on Taiwan without US interference.
"I see one punch in the nose [from the Chinese], and it will ruin America as we know it today."-- Former US navy vice admiral Al Konetzni
China's submarine force is larger than the US', and "in the year 2025, they'll have three times [as many as the US] at the rate we're doing business," Konetzni told the base closing commission hearing.
"I see a problem with Taiwan," he added.
"I see us putting our white hats on and going across the world and getting there" in the case of hostile Chinese military action against Taiwan requiring a US response, he said.
"And I see one punch in the nose, and it will ruin America as we know it today," Konetzni told the commission.
Until his recent retirement, Konetzni was the deputy commander of the naval command that covered Europe, the Atlantic and the Pacific. Before that he spent three years as commander of submarines in the Pacific and before that, three years in Japan and South Korea.
He testified in opposition to the closure of the New London submarine base.
There are 400 submarines in the world today, he said. China now has a larger force than the US' and in 10 years China will have twice as many submarines as the US. By 2025, the gap will rise to three-to-one, he testified.
Konetzni said that the US has fewer submarines in the Pacific than it has needed, even with the stationing of additional subs in Guam at the end of the 20th century.
"Today, we can deploy nine -- we can stretch it to 10 -- submarines at a time. Our [combat commanders] ... have a requirement for critical requirements of up to 13," he said.
"The fact is, over 30 percent of critical peacetime missions are missed annually. That means we didn't know much about the Chinese [or their] Yuan-class being launched last year," he said.
Ironically, the New London facility is one of the shipbuilding sites that could be involved in building the diesel subs that the Bush administration has been pressing Taiwan to purchase since 2001.
The Electric Boat Division of the defense contracting giant General Dynamic Corp has a variety of docks reserved for ship building, refitting and repair, which builds submarines for the US navy and for sale abroad under US official foreign arms sales programs.
General Dynamics has been named as a potential supplier of the eight submarines that are part of the NT$410.8 billion (US$12.8 billion) arms-sales package that has been held up in the legislature by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and its allies.
BTTT
I thought we used destroyers to chase down enemy subs?
And I see no mention of whether we believe they'll be carrying super-cavitating torpedoes.
Long gone. Long gone.
He was snookered, he squeezed all of the savings out of every sector...including the sub force rebuild rate, having been promised that it would be made up with procurements later. Instead, The savings were duly reported. And then Wolfowitz and Rummy zeroed out those savings, and did not raise the procurement funds.
Vernon Clark deserves our pity, not contempt. He was lied to, by people who he should have been able to trust. In effect, the Administration is lying to the Country. And it won't be apparent to the unwashed SHeeple until its too late. And then they will ask "Where did our SuperPower country go?"
Twenty years to 3 to 1? With all due respect to the Admiral, PLAN subs won't make that mark.
Right now we do, partly because our technology is better, but that won't stay that way if we keep selling it.
Does the include both land based and sea based capability?
Ping.
April 30, 2001 - Russian military forces intervened in a mock nuclear conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan during strategic exercises that included Russian preparations to use nuclear weapons on U.S. forces in Asia, The Washington Times has learned.
Russian forces help China in mock conflict
Feb 2002 - China's military is covertly buying U.S. commercial satellite photographs of Taiwan that U.S. intelligence officials say will be used to target the island with the mainland's growing arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles. Satellite photographs of most of the island are being purchased by China through a South Korean company, U.S. intelligence officials say.
Nov 2003 - In a tough statement, the Vice-Minister at Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office Wang Zaixi said Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's recent pro-separatist activities had crossed Beijing's "red line" and that they "run the risk of triggering a war" with the mainland. "War will break out if the island declares formal independence," state media on Wednesday quoted Wang as saying.
July 26, 2004 - About 18,000 Chinese troops using their country's most advanced weapons systems last week rehearsed coordinated air, sea and ground attacks on Dongshan, an island in the South China Sea that resembles Taiwan in terrain and weather.
Feb 7, 2005 - Quietly, with almost no notice taken in the U.S. media, Russia and China have just stepped up their military cooperation to a level not seen in half a century since the end of the Korean War.
Mar 8, 2005 — China unveiled a law Tuesday authorizing an attack if Taiwan moves toward formal independence, increasing pressure on the self-ruled island while warning other countries not to interfere.
June 26, 2005 - China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials. U.S. defense and intelligence officials say all the signs point in one troubling direction: Beijing then will be forced to go to war with the United States, which has vowed to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack.
June 28, 2005 - China's decision to open up massive bomb shelters to the public, ostensibly to provide a respite from summer heat, has U.S. intelligence analysts concerned about a possible strategic deception by Beijing, reports Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin. The Chinese specialist agreed with others knowledgeable about nuclear arms that such a maneuver – opening up large fallout shelters to the public on a regular basis would serve two strategic purposes for Beijing: It would familiarize the Chinese people to the shelters, making it easier to evacuate the public in times of potential nuclear attack; It would confuse Western intelligence analysts who monitor movements of the Chinese public by satellite as evidence of the government's intentions; In addition to monitoring missile launches, U.S. national security officials keep an eye on large-scale public movements in countries like China. If, for instance, city residents were seen moving in large numbers into fallout shelters, it would be a sign the government might be preparing for an attack of some kind.
But if such massive movements became routine – because shelters are opened up in the heat of summer and in the cold of winter to provide shelters from the elements – then such movements would more likely be disregarded as militarily insignificant in the West.
"Think about it," said one U.S. intelligence source. "If you were planning, at some point in the future, to launch a pre-emptive first strike on some enemy, wouldn't it make sense to do what the Chinese are doing?"
Anyone else hear a drum beat?
They need to become a nuke power and have a mode of delivery on the same day. If they get one without the other, China will deliver a first strike.
And we are feeding their war machine by buying stuff from them.
You're damn right we are!
I never worked for him, but I have met Big Al and would have been glad to serve under him.
Your FReepname suggests an association with the 'Bouncing Billy B' ... were you on SSN-680?
We use subs to chase down enemy subs ...
Unfortunately for the Chinese Submarine Fleet, submarines at sea have been completely visible since 1982. It is only when they sink to the bottom and cover themselves with muck like manta rays that they can no longer be seen.
Goodness, you have been paying attention - haven't you? Yeah I hear the drum beat too - it's beginning to have the flavor of the ominous music in Jaws.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.