Posted on 07/28/2005 6:02:29 AM PDT by lowbuck
Germany needs painful economic reforms. That, at least, is what politicians were saying last year. But this year, the emergence of the new Left Party has seen all major parties veer to the left and dramatically soften their rhetoric. Which is grim news for Germany.
Here's a string of un-fun facts about Germany -- not for the sake of feeding Germany's near pathological pessimism, but to foster an honest conversation about the future. Since German reunification in the early 1990s, all growth in the country has been financed by billions in public debt. The national debt has doubled to €1.4 trillion. Unemployment has increased by close to 70 percent and this year the country counted 5 million jobless people for the first time. And in a country with a shrinking population, the day is already in sight when there will only be a single payer for every person receiving retirement benefits.
Even though international economists have called Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's "Agenda 2010" program reform-lite, his is still the first government in post-war German history courageous enough to make any serious attempt at tackling significant structural and economic reforms. His government went far -- most notably through the dramatic cuts to unemployment benefits in the "Hartz IV" law -- but it didn't go far enough and now these efforts are stalled by bickering among political parties and a wide-spread public backlash.
Germans, it seems, are unwilling to suffer in the short term in order to benefit in the longer term through economic growth. Other European countries -- especially in Scandinavia -- have turned painful reforms into a winning economic situation, but Germans seem unwilling to scale back a system that has people on social assistance living better than people in many other parts of the developed world. Call it chronic luxuritis.
(Excerpt) Read more at service.spiegel.de ...
The country is becoming an economic basket case and I can only hope that the CDU/CSU wins big and then gives the ecomomy the hard medicine to get it on the road to recovery.
Maybe what Germany needs is to elect another leftwing government and totally discredit the left. It looks like now a CDU lead coalition will only be able to enact half measures that will be less than half effective.
I believe that Germany was second only to Russia in communist party membership prior to WWII. The internal conflict was between Russian communism and Hitler's socialism. Doesn't seem to have changed much except for the names. Both are guaranteed losers.
Actually, I´m hoping - and it looks like that right now - that Germany gets a CDU/CSU/FDP coalition. The FDP is the salt in the soup, pushing for free markets!
Hello Michael, Have not seen you posting for a bit, appreciate your view.
I have been wondering if the CDU/CSU was understating their manifesto to get elected and then offer up greater reforms. What do you think (provided you wish to comment on this hot button issue)?
A CDU win means three business improvements: (1) Sunday open hours for most businesses, (2) intense pressure on unions to accept more concessions in order to jumpstart the economy, and (3) more intense laws to halt exodus of black economy cash outside of the country. They will likely get 18 months to show gains or face a dump from the public as well....and I think the far left or radical right may earn votes if they fail. To much dissatifaction with both main parties now...either they show results or face lack of confidence from the voters.
It's a general political rule that radical reforms are easiest-swallowed coming from politicians of the opposite side of the aisle from where they might be expected. Nixon's wage and price controls are a case in point. Schroeder represented the best hope of getting the unions to swallow this bitter pill - the alternative is either a government unbeholden to the unions, which seems unlikely at the moment, or one so beholden to them for its position that the necessary reforms will never be put in place. What it will take in the form of economic stagnation to convince union leaders that they will have to accept some pain is a fair indication of where Germany will be headed economically for the next decade or so. I wish them the best, but it doesn't look promising.
You´re right, too much dissatisfaction for both large parties. But on the first issue you´re wrong. The CDU wants to allow shops to open around the clock - but not on Sunday.
Then, the Kündigungsschutz will be reduced to zero for many people who want to be employed.
And the tax system will get a bit easier - at least a bit.
Plus, it´s our agenda to cut taxes as soon as possible (let´s say half a million less jobless who then pay taxes).
Hi, first of all, we don´t call it manifesto. This sounds so communist-style, so the SPD can use this term. It´s our "program for government".
I´m sorry to disappoint you, but this is actually the most honest program we´ve ever offered. We´re looking forward to realize the program within the first two years, as long as we have a safe majority in both the Bundestag and Bundesrat.
When the economy gets stronger - as it looks like, since the stocks are rising right after the announcement of early elections: the stock market expects and wishes for Merkel as Chancellor - we then can afford to cut taxes. I´m optimistic that there will be stronger reforms, cudos to the FDP which will help to push for those against the CSU. :-)
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