Wilson later said he was hoping to start a gold business out of Niger. That does not pass the smell test to me. I think that was a big old fat cover story. He would not have made any money in a startup gold business. I think he was working with uranium smugglers and got himself assigned to the 2002 trip by using his wife, in order to cover his own ass and those of his friends when his wife told him the CIA was aggressively looking into Iraqi attempts to buy uranium. He needed to find out exactly what the government knew and might have told other intelligence gatherers, and whether any of it could lead back to him; and he needed to tell his "business associates" to shred everything and get the hell out of Dodge. That's why he told everyone he just sat around the pool drinking mint tea, why he did not deliver a written report to the CIA, and why he never said anything about the trip to anyone else until he signed up with the Kerry campaign.
I think Joe Wilson used his connections in Africa to start a lucrative illicit business, and used his wife to enable him to cover it up. He had no intention of talking about it until he signed on with the Kerry campaign and was convinced he could use the story against the Bush administration, which he didn't like anyway because he had worked for Al Gore and the Clinton White House (ahem, his boss was Sandy Berger.) I think he was reluctant because he did not want his wife involved or named. I think the Kerry campaign convinced him it could keep her out of it. But none of them knew about the State Department memo, nor did they realilze the extent of the feud between State and CIA. I think State leaked the info about Plame to Bob Novak in order to embarrass the CIA, then Wilson went ballistic. The Kerry campaign then concocted the story that the White House was behind the "leak" and spread it around to its friends in the MSM, especially Mr. Mandy Grunwald. The CIA asked for the investigation because it suspected State was the source of the leak to Novak. I think Joe Wilson was initially clueless about all of it, but he has been enjoying his 15 minutes of fame and so he continues to go along with the Democrat version of events. And he knows that as long as the focus is on the White House and a criminal investigation, nobody is going to start asking what the hell he was doing in business in Niger and where all of his money came from.
Your theory sounds plausible. Like you, I think the old rhubarb "Follow the money" would be well applied in Mr. Wilson's case. Hopefully Mr. Fitzgerald has a curious disposition.
I'll keep your points in mind, but I still think 12 years married to a supposedly obscure French consulate worker...well, it goads my curiosity. I wish we knew more about her.