Posted on 07/21/2005 2:08:32 PM PDT by janetjanet998
Tropical Depression Six Forecast/Advisory Number 1
Statement as of 21:00Z on July 21, 2005
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for Eleuthera...New Providence...Berry
Islands...Abacos...and Grand Bahama Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Tropical depression center located near 25.3n 75.4w at 21/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 11 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 1009 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
12 ft seas.. 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 25.3n 75.4w at 21/2100z
at 21/1800z center was located near 25.0n 75.0w
forecast valid 22/0600z 26.3n 76.8w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
Forecast valid 22/1800z 27.5n 77.5w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 35ne 35se 25sw 35nw.
Forecast valid 23/0600z 28.5n 77.6w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 45ne 45se 35sw 45nw.
Forecast valid 23/1800z 29.0n 77.0w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 55ne 55se 55sw 55nw.
Forecast valid 24/1800z 29.0n 76.5w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 65ne 65se 65sw 65nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 25/1800z 28.5n 76.0w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
Outlook valid 26/1800z 28.0n 76.5w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 25.3n 75.4w
next advisory at 22/0300z
forecaster Stewart
Depressing news, for sure.
Out of the blue? Wierd.
Tropical systems ping!
track has it doing a loop off the FL coast
I'm curious as to why this tropical depression was initially announced as a cyclone. That, and forming rather rapidly, "out of the blue" as another poster put it, so close to the continental US, makes this somewhat peculiar to me, and I'm something of a weather geek. I'm in NC, so I'm not unfamiliar with tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.
Actually if you recall about 10 days ago when Emily was forming I mentioned another possible US (FL-NC) threat down the road...well...here we are. Can't give myself full credit because I was expecting a long-tracker, it developed a whole lot later than it looked at the time.
The latest forecast track is weird, if it verifies it could be a stronger version of TS Edouard back in 2002. Very weak steering currents at the present time, so thus we're left w/ an erratic-moving TC.
more later... -Rob
another feature getting its act together in the western Car. sea
Also this is very close to (if not already) a tropical storm. A nearby ship reported 35kt+ winds close to the center, and latest recon just found flight-level winds at 42KT. That corresponds to 37.8KT at the surface...this data just now came out so they may have just barely missed it.
Unless it collapses right now, expect Franklin later tonight. -rob
i see some shear on the west side..see the clouds blow off on the VIS..storm is very small area wise too..like Charely was
Meteorologically, all low pressures of any kind are cyclones.
Not to offend anyone in the Jacksonville-Savannah area, but it seems that over the last 50 years, ya'll have gotten off kind of lucky
You know, if the Central Gulf, So. and Cen. Florida, and N. Carolina are going to get constantly hit, then maybe it's your time
This is not to be mean but, I'm absolutely sick of everything heading this way.
Another thread called it a "cyclone",
and somebody said that meant it's swirling clockwise instead of counterclockwise.
That sounds pretty weird to me.
Could you please squash this rumor if it's incorrect?
This is true, but it's more like 150 years of luck.
That said, due to geography they will always get hit less than Southern Florida or North Carolina.
However, some recent research has found a LOT of Northern Florida/Georgia hits of strong storms in the 18th and early 19th centuries, when the area was pretty thinly populated.
Aww crap
How long before we know if this turns into a cane?
It's easier for a smaller storm to intensify because it doesn't need to have a pressure to be as low in order to justify a certain windspeed.
In general, I would prefer a large circulation to a small one, for example. Frances was bad, it had a large windfield, but it also came in as a comparitively weak hurricane. Imagine what would have happened if Frances had been Charley strength.
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