If Basso stays with CSC they have to be the favorite. Ullrich may have another shot at it but he's getting old as well.
/watched every stage so far
//Had trouble going up 200 meters in elevation last weekend
///Amazed at how they get up those mountains
Ullrich's problem is that he a very strong rider if the pace is constant. He cannot handle changes and pace and has trouble answering hard fast accelerations. You can see people putting a quick gap on him. He can then hold the gap but not always close it. He also never seems to be ready for the tour until the second week. T-Mobile should tell him the Tour starts in late June. He would do much better. Also , he has been the new Tyler Hamilton - can't seem to stay on the bike this year.
I think it will be Ullrich next year. Lance is a better rider but more importantly Lance has beaten Jan mentally months before the tour even begins. I predict that without having to face a sure defeat by Lance, Jan will actually train pretty hard (compared to his usual standards). He will never be an attacker but he should be able to hang with Basso and beat him in the time trials.